{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2c84163e-7c8c-44f6-acdf-5c427ee95f0c", "symbol": "002890", "name": "Shandong Hongyu Precision Machinery Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.959, "architecture_energy": 59.253, "architecture_maturity": 15.599, "architecture_confidence": 88.071, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.44, "rotation_up": 15.18, "upward_expansion": 14.37, "deceleration": 37.38, "rotation_down": 65.5, "downward_expansion": 85.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.252, 13.677501, 14.561219, 15.01996 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.01, "trend_reference": 15.480451, "distance_from_trend": -0.094988, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.95845, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.171557, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.117827, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.189705, "excess_performance": -0.197105, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.094988, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023017, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.171557, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.313488, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.111178, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05885, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.189705, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.65889, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12549515, "relative_activity": 1.239118, "balance": 0.65889, "dry_up": 1.083969, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118146, "annualized_volatility": 0.463666, "from_high_reference": -0.220309, "from_low_reference": 0.222513 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.480451, "fair_value_reference": 11.95845, "structural_low": 11.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.053302, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.014814, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.253333, "worst_return": -0.161239, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.377196, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.170185, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.591333, "worst_return": -0.002653, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.244338, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.182895, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.322839, "worst_return": 0.129528, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.309953, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.106383, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059317, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.165094, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.122036, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.120931, 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"relative_strength": -15.341165, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.973163, "energy": 62.262467, "activity_lines": [ 14.04057, 14.493849, 15.22946, 15.505316 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.15, "volume": 10111262, "typical_volume": 9818387.7, "trend": 15.560784, "fair_value": 11.927211, "relative_strength": -20.668125, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.22259, "energy": 60.266062, "activity_lines": [ 13.363132, 13.971609, 14.902443, 15.280018 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.02, "volume": 13235434, "typical_volume": 9912358.8, "trend": 15.500118, "fair_value": 11.938682, "relative_strength": -13.344473, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.190207, "energy": 69.91102, "activity_lines": [ 13.136667, 13.701002, 14.677045, 15.116096 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.01, "volume": 12549515, "typical_volume": 10127777.45, "trend": 15.480451, "fair_value": 11.95845, "relative_strength": -11.117827, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.959, "energy": 59.253254, "activity_lines": [ 13.252, 13.677501, 14.561219, 15.01996 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }