{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2c84ceed-2683-45ae-8d02-5ce5d03ed66a", "symbol": "SRC", "name": "SigmaRoc plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.156, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 11.284, "architecture_energy": 16.818, "architecture_maturity": 16.835, "architecture_confidence": 77.982, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.8, "rotation_up": 32.97, "upward_expansion": 34.08, "deceleration": 32.67, "rotation_down": 19.68, "downward_expansion": 42.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 127.206667, 125.816364, 123.712381, 124.466236 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 135.0, "trend_reference": 127.306667, "distance_from_trend": 0.060432, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 90.277564, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.495388, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.450715, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.0625, "excess_performance": -0.113735, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060432, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008769, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.495388, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083613, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.004507, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068159, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.0625, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.788305, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11680621, "relative_activity": 0.677605, "balance": 0.788305, "dry_up": 0.947241, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064847, "annualized_volatility": 0.424564, "from_high_reference": -0.117647, "from_low_reference": 0.285714 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 127.306667, "fair_value_reference": 90.277564, "structural_low": 105.199997, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.058104, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.065768, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.140845, "worst_return": -0.157609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.026257, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003956, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.153169, "worst_return": -0.26087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.088774, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.049578, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.18838, "worst_return": -0.376087, 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0.13649, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054455, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.098864, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.173869, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.134301, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037618, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.231752, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.088658, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.10159, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074588, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03211, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 56.200001, "volume": 2574258, "typical_volume": 3529289.6, "trend": 57.76, "fair_value": 68.85609, "relative_strength": 7.762514, "stage": 3, "regime": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 122.1, "volume": 10988363, "typical_volume": 19356932.0, "trend": 127.523333, "fair_value": 88.967949, "relative_strength": -7.099247, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.850711, "energy": 13.311093, "activity_lines": [ 124.44, 122.807272, 122.058571, 124.447527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 124.3, "volume": 16511070, "typical_volume": 19454382.95, "trend": 127.413333, "fair_value": 89.380128, "relative_strength": -6.446469, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.826306, "energy": 11.900909, "activity_lines": [ 124.333333, 123.412727, 122.287619, 124.23957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 123.2, "volume": 26134518, "typical_volume": 19426869.0, "trend": 127.273333, "fair_value": 89.785256, "relative_strength": -8.201546, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.796946, "energy": 7.636141, "activity_lines": [ 123.78, 123.632727, 122.439047, 123.967742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 135.0, "volume": 11680621, "typical_volume": 17238103.3, "trend": 127.306667, "fair_value": 90.277564, "relative_strength": 0.450715, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 11.283824, "energy": 16.817658, "activity_lines": [ 127.206667, 125.816364, 123.712381, 124.466236 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }