{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2c923a44-9fee-4daf-8a12-0fba1baccebb", "symbol": "HBGD", "name": "Global X Big Data & Hardware Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 2.447, "architecture_energy": 24.664, "architecture_maturity": 67.407, "architecture_confidence": 73.876, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.27, "rotation_up": 14.63, "upward_expansion": 42.56, "deceleration": 87.95, "rotation_down": 47.6, "downward_expansion": 36.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 67.802002, 71.930364, 73.105619, 69.253763 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 69.290001, "trend_reference": 64.152, "distance_from_trend": 0.080091, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.943547, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.875564, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 10.405623, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.364514, "excess_performance": 0.244092, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080091, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.163752, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.875564, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.416182, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.104056, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.350598, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.364514, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.501149, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12100, "relative_activity": 0.853917, "balance": 0.501149, "dry_up": 1.51729, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10289, "annualized_volatility": 0.484812, "from_high_reference": -0.225291, "from_low_reference": 1.033298 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 64.152, "fair_value_reference": 36.943547, "structural_low": 46.099998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.077043, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": 0.046848, "regime_survival": 0.473684, "best_return": 0.311499, "worst_return": -0.176925, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.064659, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.030006, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.573916, "worst_return": -0.291654, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.221943, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.13333, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.752897, "worst_return": -0.122694, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.150835, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.16009, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.300172, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.168209, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.177167, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": 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73.504428, 68.1523 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 65.839996, "volume": 15400, "typical_volume": 11540.0, "trend": 62.385511, "fair_value": 36.056152, "relative_strength": 10.518465, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.786716, "energy": 24.220153, "activity_lines": [ 74.527998, 77.42709, 73.404237, 68.416462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 67.800003, "volume": 12100, "typical_volume": 11700.0, "trend": 63.060666, "fair_value": 36.346458, "relative_strength": 12.70031, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.094474, "energy": 28.43214, "activity_lines": [ 71.109333, 75.528545, 73.428761, 68.765785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 64.910004, "volume": 46400, "typical_volume": 13780.0, "trend": 63.575666, "fair_value": 36.629038, "relative_strength": 7.608574, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.048382, "energy": 23.647788, "activity_lines": [ 68.154001, 73.215091, 73.091571, 68.885097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 69.290001, "volume": 12100, "typical_volume": 14170.0, "trend": 64.152, "fair_value": 36.943547, "relative_strength": 10.405623, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.446824, "energy": 24.664206, "activity_lines": [ 67.802002, 71.930364, 73.105619, 69.253763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }