{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2c947614-cf98-4f0d-a19e-a8733fd3bdf0", "symbol": "6555", "name": "Long Time Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.241, "architecture_energy": 81.064, "architecture_maturity": 42.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.833, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.17, "rotation_up": 14.49, "upward_expansion": 19.89, "deceleration": 37.63, "rotation_down": 74.75, "downward_expansion": 97.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.656667, 16.695455, 18.763333, 20.062903 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 15.6, "trend_reference": 21.858333, "distance_from_trend": -0.286313, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.894551, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.287494, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -53.312758, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.397683, "excess_performance": -0.839055, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.286313, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096141, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.287494, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.224405, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.533128, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130659, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.397683, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.82213, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 366925, "relative_activity": 0.27057, "balance": 0.82213, "dry_up": 0.325192, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.139793, "annualized_volatility": 0.634624, "from_high_reference": -0.549133, "from_low_reference": 0.090909 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.858333, "fair_value_reference": 21.894551, "structural_low": 14.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.025295, "positive_rate": 0.324324, "directional_follow_through": 0.648649, "median_excess_return": -0.034001, "regime_survival": 0.864865, "best_return": 0.504178, "worst_return": -0.198433, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.104556, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.171294, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.310056, "worst_return": -0.214709, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.152577, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.146273, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.345714, "worst_return": -0.311897, "sufficient": true }, { 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"direction": -62.114537, "energy": 56.301714, "activity_lines": [ 19.586667, 20.387273, 21.810476, 22.627419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.9, "volume": 184339, "typical_volume": 1490911.5, "trend": 23.386667, "fair_value": 22.374359, "relative_strength": -47.163096, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.153028, "energy": 59.876602, "activity_lines": [ 19.226667, 19.946364, 21.466905, 22.322796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.8, "volume": 1314068, "typical_volume": 1513631.75, "trend": 23.083333, "fair_value": 22.273718, "relative_strength": -52.415594, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.709545, "energy": 78.322665, "activity_lines": [ 18.023333, 19.052727, 20.862381, 21.833333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.0, "volume": 549329, "typical_volume": 1460801.25, "trend": 22.85, "fair_value": 22.183333, "relative_strength": -49.179282, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.7139, "energy": 77.29614, "activity_lines": [ 17.48, 18.535455, 20.418333, 21.44086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.35, "volume": 623236, "typical_volume": 1433103.05, "trend": 22.516667, "fair_value": 22.089423, "relative_strength": -52.826312, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.77013, "energy": 82.994622, "activity_lines": [ 16.606667, 17.801818, 19.84119, 20.956989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.25, "volume": 224506, "typical_volume": 1381919.8, "trend": 22.191667, "fair_value": 21.995513, "relative_strength": -53.516294, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.128607, "energy": 85.11693, "activity_lines": [ 15.943333, 17.171818, 19.274286, 20.488172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 15.6, "volume": 366925, "typical_volume": 1356117.75, "trend": 21.858333, "fair_value": 21.894551, "relative_strength": -53.312758, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.240752, "energy": 81.063832, "activity_lines": [ 15.656667, 16.695455, 18.763333, 20.062903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }