{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2c9716d5-868a-4285-9826-6adcee71dd4b", "symbol": "ASHOKLEY", "name": "Ashok Leyland Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 54.293, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 12.39, "architecture_energy": 15.857, "architecture_maturity": 15.316, "architecture_confidence": 51.258, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.13, "rotation_up": 38.19, "upward_expansion": 33.05, "deceleration": 43.23, "rotation_down": 20.82, "downward_expansion": 46.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 164.891999, 161.734, 159.588697, 162.910046 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 177.5, "trend_reference": 169.776809, "distance_from_trend": 0.04549, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 119.247961, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.488495, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 12.13629, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.105589, "excess_performance": -0.06188, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04549, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00498, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.488495, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014913, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.121363, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025569, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.105589, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.824436, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 119002901, "relative_activity": 1.347997, "balance": 0.824436, "dry_up": 0.989802, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056528, "annualized_volatility": 0.460037, "from_high_reference": -0.161972, "from_low_reference": 0.581005 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 169.776809, "fair_value_reference": 119.247961, "structural_low": 140.729307, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.006384, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.025791, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.133742, "worst_return": -0.203759, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.018532, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.019587, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.257415, "worst_return": -0.073321, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.10138, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.111649, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.40959, "worst_return": 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157.490005, "volume": 83541745, "typical_volume": 90691988.55, "trend": 171.86492, "fair_value": 117.246159, "relative_strength": 3.393241, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.441501, "energy": 21.811716, "activity_lines": [ 159.510669, 156.76593, 158.908982, 165.097874 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 155.229996, "volume": 78621134, "typical_volume": 91796485.0, "trend": 171.350957, "fair_value": 117.70252, "relative_strength": 0.88348, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.030512, "energy": 20.889087, "activity_lines": [ 158.478667, 156.596596, 158.102166, 164.024653 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 151.070007, "volume": 51684514, "typical_volume": 89987593.45, "trend": 170.66162, "fair_value": 118.139769, "relative_strength": 0.04652, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.248635, "energy": 28.221928, "activity_lines": [ 155.874669, 155.862038, 157.148348, 162.716204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 166.179993, "volume": 100215418, "typical_volume": 87994871.5, "trend": 170.013833, "fair_value": 118.664396, "relative_strength": 6.616864, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.379088, "energy": 12.916205, "activity_lines": [ 158.68, 157.865506, 157.825646, 162.427067 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 177.5, "volume": 119002901, "typical_volume": 88281271.95, "trend": 169.776809, "fair_value": 119.247961, "relative_strength": 12.13629, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 12.389689, "energy": 15.856521, "activity_lines": [ 164.891999, 161.734, 159.588697, 162.910046 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }