{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2c9e1844-0387-416b-837e-29c8f5e1b41b", "symbol": "7261", "name": "ChinaAMC Leveraged/Inverse Series - ChinaAMC Direxion NASDAQ-100 Daily (2x) Leveraged Product", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.35, "architecture_energy": 25.347, "architecture_maturity": 71.622, "architecture_confidence": 88.775, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.8, "rotation_up": 22.83, "upward_expansion": 49.67, "deceleration": 85.16, "rotation_down": 33.32, "downward_expansion": 25.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.508, 52.536728, 52.604381, 50.154796 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 53.439999, "trend_reference": 47.176, "distance_from_trend": 0.132779, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.94, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.574543, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 19.209718, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.359105, "excess_performance": 0.392686, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.132779, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085121, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.574543, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114459, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.192097, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084421, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.359105, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.279412, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13800, "relative_activity": 0.258185, "balance": 0.279412, "dry_up": 1.333957, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057692, "annualized_volatility": 0.3513, "from_high_reference": -0.087743, "from_low_reference": 0.558018 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.176, "fair_value_reference": 33.94, "structural_low": 34.299999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.063799, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.032149, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.141494, "worst_return": -0.180614, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.08422, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.068061, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.26726, "worst_return": -0.274087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.234973, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.068468, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.394344, "worst_return": -0.135375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.216502, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.16612, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.55784, "worst_return": -0.511281, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.13654, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074447, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.072443, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.359207, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.142509, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.046562, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030517, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030549, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028993, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.11469, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.280905, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.112193, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074495, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064966, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 19.219999, "volume": 150500, "typical_volume": 163665.0, "trend": 17.305333, "fair_value": 18.982308, "relative_strength": 32.937313, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 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54.664001, 55.204001, 51.781619, 48.986839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 50.439999, "volume": 192100, "typical_volume": 61895.0, "trend": 46.360667, "fair_value": 33.360769, "relative_strength": 19.557442, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.699177, "energy": 32.242623, "activity_lines": [ 53.202667, 54.345455, 52.004191, 49.268387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.18, "volume": 11400, "typical_volume": 56585.0, "trend": 46.591333, "fair_value": 33.544359, "relative_strength": 16.337239, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.012669, "energy": 29.160139, "activity_lines": [ 51.922667, 53.477819, 52.156953, 49.514796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.900002, "volume": 67900, "typical_volume": 59155.0, "trend": 46.828667, "fair_value": 33.728333, "relative_strength": 11.051119, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.080705, "energy": 27.848873, "activity_lines": [ 51.002667, 52.637819, 52.238381, 49.728258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.439999, "volume": 13800, "typical_volume": 53450.0, "trend": 47.176, "fair_value": 33.94, "relative_strength": 19.209718, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.350288, "energy": 25.346512, "activity_lines": [ 51.508, 52.536728, 52.604381, 50.154796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }