{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2c9fa311-9e91-45a9-8a22-09b6a45d0912", "symbol": "300695", "name": "Zhejiang Zhaofeng Mechanical and Electronic Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.797, "architecture_energy": 71.069, "architecture_maturity": 72.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.113, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.87, "rotation_up": 14.41, "upward_expansion": 18.39, "deceleration": 35.32, "rotation_down": 69.71, "downward_expansion": 89.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.204667, 50.904282, 56.26976, 60.501197 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 49.400002, "trend_reference": 67.318123, "distance_from_trend": -0.266171, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 51.272785, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.036526, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.766438, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.3917, "excess_performance": -0.3991, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.266171, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170069, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.036526, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.473305, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.417664, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096924, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.3917, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.451104, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6686561, "relative_activity": 1.046295, "balance": 0.451104, "dry_up": 0.977566, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.187136, "annualized_volatility": 0.787283, "from_high_reference": -0.598374, "from_low_reference": 0.198447 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 67.318123, "fair_value_reference": 51.272785, "structural_low": 41.220001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.008911, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": -0.026055, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.195294, "worst_return": -0.337735, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.044508, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.004564, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.270424, "worst_return": -0.135272, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.023899, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.014057, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.634507, "worst_return": -0.19624, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.00094, "energy": 47.554025, "activity_lines": [ 55.188668, 57.247824, 61.170241, 65.317027 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.209999, "volume": 6537445, "typical_volume": 6247336.45, "trend": 70.457123, "fair_value": 51.079331, "relative_strength": -49.799479, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.795075, "energy": 53.959574, "activity_lines": [ 50.682001, 54.004127, 59.067795, 63.399514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.139999, "volume": 4500290, "typical_volume": 6197961.7, "trend": 69.00679, "fair_value": 51.160237, "relative_strength": -44.695745, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.45168, "energy": 71.463174, "activity_lines": [ 48.091333, 51.834079, 57.397777, 61.766151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.400002, "volume": 6686561, "typical_volume": 6390700.5, "trend": 67.318123, "fair_value": 51.272785, "relative_strength": -41.766438, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.796792, "energy": 71.069388, "activity_lines": [ 47.204667, 50.904282, 56.26976, 60.501197 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }