{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2ca2fa05-df9d-4829-8996-2ac5e0c534f7", "symbol": "CPRT", "name": "Copart, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.462, "architecture_energy": 64.629, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.365, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.36, "rotation_up": 24.72, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 59.03, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 497.852, 504.380363, 527.264523, 549.107569 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 498.0, "trend_reference": 586.253333, "distance_from_trend": -0.150538, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 880.786312, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.434596, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.227596, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.306407, "excess_performance": -0.25174, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.150538, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104841, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.434596, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084706, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.282276, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049922, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.306407, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.308428, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 446, "relative_activity": 0.257647, "balance": 1.308428, "dry_up": 1.248086, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043715, "annualized_volatility": 0.356916, "from_high_reference": -0.461622, "from_low_reference": 0.059574 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 586.253333, "fair_value_reference": 880.786312, "structural_low": 470.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.030464, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.049194, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.053539, "worst_return": -0.136133, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.088442, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.103434, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.052752, "worst_return": -0.206174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.15547, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.158193, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.092985, "worst_return": -0.276382, "sufficient": 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"active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.091228, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048056, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046787, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073846, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.192929, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -92.328921, "energy": 77.038433, "activity_lines": [ 492.297333, 509.08909, 535.582952, 560.396171 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 520.0, "volume": 166, "typical_volume": 1804.9, "trend": 593.486666, "fair_value": 882.340254, "relative_strength": -26.065997, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.725606, "energy": 67.130664, "activity_lines": [ 498.364667, 508.255272, 532.256761, 555.267999 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 498.0, "volume": 446, "typical_volume": 1731.05, "trend": 586.253333, "fair_value": 880.786312, "relative_strength": -28.227596, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.462073, "energy": 64.628827, "activity_lines": [ 497.852, 504.380363, 527.264523, 549.107569 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }