{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2ca6e7ae-7333-464d-96c7-885d13af3ffa", "symbol": "PBQQ", "name": "PGIM LADDERED NASDAQ-100 BUFFER 12 ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 59.31, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.285, "architecture_energy": 41.087, "architecture_maturity": 61.607, "architecture_confidence": 74.331, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.71, "rotation_up": 38.2, "upward_expansion": 65.66, "deceleration": 94.13, "rotation_down": 29.2, "downward_expansion": 14.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.239453, 31.230424, 31.11438, 30.658641 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 31.7, "trend_reference": 30.07539, "distance_from_trend": 0.054018, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.827789, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.139149, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.229215, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.099393, "excess_performance": -0.088061, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.054018, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030353, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.139149, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00594, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.052292, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025769, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.099393, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.503588, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47285, "relative_activity": 0.400802, "balance": 0.503588, "dry_up": 0.479074, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016678, "annualized_volatility": 0.084695, "from_high_reference": -0.00126, "from_low_reference": 0.164018 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.07539, "fair_value_reference": 27.827789, "structural_low": 27.81, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014145, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02872, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2025-01-03", "close": 25.152349, "volume": 626, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-10", "close": 24.925682, "volume": 554154, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, 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null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 31.2298, "volume": 149294, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 31.22, "volume": 437899, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 31.46, "volume": 52026, "typical_volume": 113051.55, "trend": 29.773591, "fair_value": 27.662063, "relative_strength": -6.83724, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.344668, "energy": 57.659675, "activity_lines": [ 31.333513, 31.301122, 30.82491, 30.333097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.015, "volume": 66108, "typical_volume": 114359.5, "trend": 29.849047, "fair_value": 27.703457, "relative_strength": -4.02016, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.714712, "energy": 45.050195, "activity_lines": [ 31.23164, 31.254889, 30.90096, 30.413188 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.815, "volume": 59779, "typical_volume": 114901.65, "trend": 29.91302, "fair_value": 27.741403, "relative_strength": -2.965233, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.322985, "energy": 35.338037, "activity_lines": [ 31.078987, 31.174747, 30.94775, 30.475508 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.0392, "volume": 52905, "typical_volume": 116087.95, "trend": 29.987613, "fair_value": 27.781136, "relative_strength": -2.643916, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.965526, "energy": 29.072748, "activity_lines": [ 31.042733, 31.14046, 31.005551, 30.548165 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.7, "volume": 47285, "typical_volume": 117975.95, "trend": 30.07539, "fair_value": 27.827789, "relative_strength": -5.229215, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.284763, "energy": 41.087463, "activity_lines": [ 31.239453, 31.230424, 31.11438, 30.658641 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }