{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2ca79a69-ba4f-402c-ad5d-91459aa79bf9", "symbol": "4584", "name": "Jufan Industrial Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.48, "architecture_energy": 15.344, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.876, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.6, "rotation_up": 27.92, "upward_expansion": 14.89, "deceleration": 42.89, "rotation_down": 28.35, "downward_expansion": 60.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.034964, 38.680768, 39.066272, 39.529549 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 39.400002, "trend_reference": 40.486616, "distance_from_trend": -0.026839, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 49.246743, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.199947, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.903839, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.098039, "excess_performance": -0.539411, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.026839, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06057, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.199947, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010788, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.379038, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068449, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.098039, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.440845, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40080, "relative_activity": 0.928464, "balance": 0.440845, "dry_up": 0.526883, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057035, "annualized_volatility": 0.212407, "from_high_reference": -0.26566, "from_low_reference": 0.062489 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.486616, "fair_value_reference": 49.246743, "structural_low": 37.082745, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.001835, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.034468, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.084112, "worst_return": -0.070896, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.034156, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.21204, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.12247, "worst_return": -0.140187, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.117442, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.252644, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.206655, "worst_return": -0.149206, "sufficient": false }, 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"typical_volume": 42085.65, "trend": 40.801691, "fair_value": 49.196462, "relative_strength": -37.927373, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.403572, "energy": 33.488603, "activity_lines": [ 38.237213, 38.359061, 39.045039, 39.67994 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.700001, "volume": 11000, "typical_volume": 42485.25, "trend": 40.62937, "fair_value": 49.223201, "relative_strength": -36.319064, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.957867, "energy": 20.82743, "activity_lines": [ 38.724266, 38.529542, 39.067807, 39.608863 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 39.400002, "volume": 40080, "typical_volume": 43168.05, "trend": 40.486616, "fair_value": 49.246743, "relative_strength": -37.903839, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.479596, "energy": 15.343707, "activity_lines": [ 39.034964, 38.680768, 39.066272, 39.529549 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }