{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2ca7a5d1-5ade-422b-984a-32c2338e4993", "symbol": "URF", "name": "US Masters Residential Property Fund", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 75.65, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.212, "architecture_energy": 74.715, "architecture_maturity": 11.907, "architecture_confidence": 76.888, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.61, "rotation_up": 75.96, "upward_expansion": 92.15, "deceleration": 42.04, "rotation_down": 9.82, "downward_expansion": 16.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.158333, 0.155409, 0.152501, 0.150466 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.16, "trend_reference": 0.148998, "distance_from_trend": 0.073841, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.135346, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.182152, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.742738, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.057236, "excess_performance": -0.00647, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073841, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009945, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.182152, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043218, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.007427, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023347, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.057236, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.844891, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 897599, "relative_activity": 0.646443, "balance": 4.844891, "dry_up": 1.091122, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038462, "annualized_volatility": 0.206236, "from_high_reference": -0.05662, "from_low_reference": 0.158094 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.148998, "fair_value_reference": 0.135346, "structural_low": 0.138158, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.014088, "positive_rate": 0.35, "directional_follow_through": 0.35, "median_excess_return": -0.013919, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 0.229507, "worst_return": -0.093333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.015626, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.031153, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.13889, "worst_return": -0.078129, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.05448, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.024176, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.169492, "worst_return": -0.101567, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 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0.16, "volume": 3896169, "typical_volume": 2158623.75, "trend": 0.148168, "fair_value": 0.1345, "relative_strength": 5.563848, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.687494, "energy": 61.843926, "activity_lines": [ 0.1535, 0.151773, 0.149531, 0.148539 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.155, "volume": 906621, "typical_volume": 1921391.5, "trend": 0.14829, "fair_value": 0.134741, "relative_strength": 2.732748, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.012448, "energy": 56.34629, "activity_lines": [ 0.1545, 0.1525, 0.150279, 0.148979 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.16, "volume": 359786, "typical_volume": 1773466.7, "trend": 0.148666, "fair_value": 0.135026, "relative_strength": 3.764738, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.680101, "energy": 70.503668, "activity_lines": [ 0.156667, 0.154045, 0.151442, 0.149735 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.16, "volume": 897599, "typical_volume": 1388519.15, "trend": 0.148998, "fair_value": 0.135346, "relative_strength": 0.742738, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.211887, "energy": 74.715149, "activity_lines": [ 0.158333, 0.155409, 0.152501, 0.150466 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }