{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2ca88bdd-cb04-4267-8d86-f834096064fb", "symbol": "002146", "name": "RiseSun Real Estate Development Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.057, "architecture_energy": 56.196, "architecture_maturity": 74.727, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 26.04, "upward_expansion": 9.59, "deceleration": 57.69, "rotation_down": 54.27, "downward_expansion": 82.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.103333, 1.117636, 1.180286, 1.25486 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.11, "trend_reference": 1.372, "distance_from_trend": -0.190962, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.607949, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.309679, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.357437, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.314815, "excess_performance": -0.322215, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.190962, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108126, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.309679, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136846, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.273574, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003196, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.314815, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.341099, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 353031484, "relative_activity": 0.93953, "balance": 0.341099, "dry_up": 1.155268, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077616, "annualized_volatility": 0.309121, "from_high_reference": -0.476415, "from_low_reference": 0.057143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.372, "fair_value_reference": 1.607949, "structural_low": 1.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.027273, "positive_rate": 0.365854, "directional_follow_through": 0.609756, "median_excess_return": -0.015456, "regime_survival": 0.853659, "best_return": 0.4875, "worst_return": -0.264151, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.101393, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.081949, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.948718, "worst_return": -0.453271, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.131737, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.158902, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.359813, "worst_return": -0.418142, "sufficient": true }, { 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012903, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019481, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.006711, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.093525, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017143, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"typical_volume": 420059411.25, "trend": 1.436333, "fair_value": 1.626154, "relative_strength": -33.430125, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.118396, "energy": 84.241507, "activity_lines": [ 1.134667, 1.183636, 1.255, 1.336215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.08, "volume": 523521948, "typical_volume": 412743182.9, "trend": 1.420667, "fair_value": 1.623205, "relative_strength": -28.120127, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.872997, "energy": 82.111971, "activity_lines": [ 1.108667, 1.157818, 1.230762, 1.313226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.07, "volume": 420901761, "typical_volume": 399640299.45, "trend": 1.404333, "fair_value": 1.619103, "relative_strength": -28.513116, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.139349, "energy": 78.637653, "activity_lines": [ 1.090667, 1.135273, 1.208429, 1.290602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.13, "volume": 438927486, "typical_volume": 396140377.6, "trend": 1.389667, "fair_value": 1.61609, "relative_strength": -22.742068, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.643996, "energy": 61.089772, "activity_lines": [ 1.101333, 1.127455, 1.194286, 1.272903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.11, "volume": 353031484, "typical_volume": 375753292.45, "trend": 1.372, "fair_value": 1.607949, "relative_strength": -27.357437, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.057238, "energy": 56.196442, "activity_lines": [ 1.103333, 1.117636, 1.180286, 1.25486 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }