{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2cb40b77-ab52-4da6-9d91-2cdff1e4283a", "symbol": "HBP", "name": "Helix BioPharma Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.105, "architecture_energy": 31.351, "architecture_maturity": 68.153, "architecture_confidence": 81.562, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.81, "rotation_up": 27.13, "upward_expansion": 16.45, "deceleration": 45.35, "rotation_down": 33.64, "downward_expansion": 64.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.5, 1.474545, 1.549238, 1.631376 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.6, "trend_reference": 1.746333, "distance_from_trend": -0.083795, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.306923, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.22425, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.734406, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.125683, "excess_performance": -0.246104, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.083795, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131322, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.22425, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068198, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.247344, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095722, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.125683, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.804598, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8900, "relative_activity": 1.20108, "balance": 2.804598, "dry_up": 0.62753, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089904, "annualized_volatility": 0.587765, "from_high_reference": -0.703704, "from_low_reference": 0.632653 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.746333, "fair_value_reference": 1.306923, "structural_low": 1.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.018153, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.020913, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.470588, "worst_return": -0.347826, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.008651, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.397059, "worst_return": -0.535714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.15, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.095815, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.447917, "worst_return": -0.675, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.147059, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.251185, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018405, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.05, "volume": 1400, "typical_volume": 2062.0, "trend": 1.046667, "fair_value": 2.078846, "relative_strength": -1.30648, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 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"typical_volume": 10745.0, "trend": 2.010333, "fair_value": 1.279744, "relative_strength": -18.233612, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.599741, "energy": 59.221755, "activity_lines": [ 1.653333, 1.751636, 1.817571, 1.899634 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 1.58, "volume": 1500, "typical_volume": 10225.0, "trend": 1.993, "fair_value": 1.283141, "relative_strength": -20.219875, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.944533, "energy": 61.145905, "activity_lines": [ 1.607333, 1.712545, 1.789, 1.871871 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 1.58, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 9295.0, "trend": 1.967333, "fair_value": 1.286859, "relative_strength": -21.682563, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.569174, "energy": 57.327784, "activity_lines": [ 1.596667, 1.678182, 1.763143, 1.845226 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 1.42, "volume": 1100, "typical_volume": 8750.0, "trend": 1.937333, "fair_value": 1.289231, "relative_strength": -29.831061, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.67202, "energy": 63.868178, "activity_lines": [ 1.536667, 1.616909, 1.724524, 1.809914 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 1.45, "volume": 1700, "typical_volume": 8770.0, "trend": 1.908333, "fair_value": 1.291795, "relative_strength": -28.510605, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.752487, "energy": 63.821716, "activity_lines": [ 1.497333, 1.569455, 1.691667, 1.778473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.4, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 8720.0, "trend": 1.877, "fair_value": 1.293718, "relative_strength": -31.586813, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.367998, "energy": 72.509727, "activity_lines": [ 1.453333, 1.522727, 1.655857, 1.745677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.44, "volume": 3700, "typical_volume": 8820.0, "trend": 1.857, "fair_value": 1.295897, "relative_strength": -29.861407, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.779291, "energy": 74.02971, "activity_lines": [ 1.438, 1.493273, 1.626, 1.717484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.4, "volume": 1500, "typical_volume": 8525.0, "trend": 1.831, "fair_value": 1.298141, "relative_strength": -31.791069, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.609743, "energy": 75.073867, "activity_lines": [ 1.418667, 1.468727, 1.595, 1.688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.42, "volume": 4900, "typical_volume": 7840.0, "trend": 1.798333, "fair_value": 1.300513, "relative_strength": -31.058762, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.234783, "energy": 58.109893, "activity_lines": [ 1.418, 1.452182, 1.568619, 1.661484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.5, "volume": 3300, "typical_volume": 7770.0, "trend": 1.768333, "fair_value": 1.303397, "relative_strength": -26.942138, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.585935, "energy": 43.358008, "activity_lines": [ 1.444, 1.453091, 1.553, 1.642237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.6, "volume": 8900, "typical_volume": 7410.0, "trend": 1.746333, "fair_value": 1.306923, "relative_strength": -24.734406, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.104991, "energy": 31.351433, "activity_lines": [ 1.5, 1.474545, 1.549238, 1.631376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }