{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2cba934f-fbe3-4fc7-825d-7f823a73282f", "symbol": "600623", "name": "Shanghai Huayi Group Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 86.011, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.382, "architecture_energy": 38.536, "architecture_maturity": 21.392, "architecture_confidence": 88.515, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.32, "rotation_up": 23.01, "upward_expansion": 5.24, "deceleration": 51.32, "rotation_down": 43.99, "downward_expansion": 73.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.081504, 8.114929, 8.554943, 8.910011 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.31, "trend_reference": 9.212723, "distance_from_trend": -0.097987, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.244354, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.1471, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.691318, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.173956, "excess_performance": -0.130752, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.097987, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01581, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.1471, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.250744, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.046913, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102177, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.173956, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.656653, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 98890941, "relative_activity": 1.003855, "balance": 0.656653, "dry_up": 0.988967, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103821, "annualized_volatility": 0.517384, "from_high_reference": -0.322186, "from_low_reference": 0.162238 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.212723, "fair_value_reference": 7.244354, "structural_low": 7.58, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.006305, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.000998, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.225807, "worst_return": -0.100028, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.070601, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.035788, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.256281, "worst_return": -0.111717, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.02338, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.009102, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.14094, "worst_return": -0.075388, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.069212, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011538, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.124372, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026804, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.077342, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", 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7.191988, "relative_strength": -9.271411, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.982213, "energy": 48.113622, "activity_lines": [ 8.214942, 8.469451, 9.038577, 9.211123 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.601967, "volume": 98290362, "typical_volume": 128853116.2, "trend": 9.15297, "fair_value": 7.203665, "relative_strength": -9.387762, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.724814, "energy": 65.52933, "activity_lines": [ 7.979122, 8.256951, 8.862111, 9.111558 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.957385, "volume": 100058991, "typical_volume": 118732179.5, "trend": 9.170883, "fair_value": 7.217138, "relative_strength": -6.126227, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.127165, "energy": 48.567974, "activity_lines": [ 7.93231, 8.149583, 8.728771, 9.034423 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.125219, "volume": 92456846, "typical_volume": 103745993.5, "trend": 9.192723, "fair_value": 7.230645, "relative_strength": -4.372287, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.480022, "energy": 46.395071, "activity_lines": [ 7.990951, 8.102596, 8.624761, 8.966961 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.31, "volume": 98890941, "typical_volume": 98511138.7, "trend": 9.212723, "fair_value": 7.244354, "relative_strength": -4.691318, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.381581, "energy": 38.535905, "activity_lines": [ 8.081504, 8.114929, 8.554943, 8.910011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }