{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2cbeb8c9-9625-40ca-8445-ffb91106bb24", "symbol": "PRAKASHSTL", "name": "Prakash Steelage Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.543, "architecture_energy": 68.038, "architecture_maturity": 15.614, "architecture_confidence": 88.737, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.26, "rotation_up": 11.31, "upward_expansion": 14.88, "deceleration": 37.55, "rotation_down": 74.23, "downward_expansion": 92.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.016, 4.118, 4.266952, 4.312624 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 3.98, "trend_reference": 4.398667, "distance_from_trend": -0.09518, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.821154, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.416521, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.799585, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.134783, "excess_performance": -0.091073, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.09518, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038823, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.416521, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081302, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.147996, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051755, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.134783, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.276518, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 576588, "relative_activity": 1.045523, "balance": 0.276518, "dry_up": 0.834611, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068806, "annualized_volatility": 0.284615, "from_high_reference": -0.394216, "from_low_reference": 0.036458 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.398667, "fair_value_reference": 6.821154, "structural_low": 3.84, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.043315, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.042919, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.18599, "worst_return": -0.125984, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.03125, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.116854, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.126582, "worst_return": -0.21, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.11, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.21711, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.02027, "worst_return": -0.317972, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045198, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.016043, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.218286, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05411, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": 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"relative_strength": -13.509852, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.672815, "energy": 57.713726, "activity_lines": [ 4.192667, 4.283636, 4.371714, 4.407032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.01, "volume": 404249, "typical_volume": 639677.95, "trend": 4.492, "fair_value": 6.833782, "relative_strength": -12.54864, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.829052, "energy": 65.102736, "activity_lines": [ 4.110667, 4.223818, 4.337286, 4.373806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.0, "volume": 447550, "typical_volume": 580303.0, "trend": 4.436333, "fair_value": 6.830897, "relative_strength": -14.352355, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.996544, "energy": 66.652481, "activity_lines": [ 4.059333, 4.169455, 4.302571, 4.342065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.98, "volume": 576588, "typical_volume": 551482.75, "trend": 4.398667, "fair_value": 6.821154, "relative_strength": -14.799585, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.542606, "energy": 68.03824, "activity_lines": [ 4.016, 4.118, 4.266952, 4.312624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }