{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2cbf42ad-2c28-40d4-917a-8ab58428ba19", "symbol": "688051", "name": "Rockontrol Technology Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.93, "architecture_energy": 59.925, "architecture_maturity": 34.927, "architecture_confidence": 94.715, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.65, "rotation_up": 19.75, "upward_expansion": 10.86, "deceleration": 47.24, "rotation_down": 61.5, "downward_expansion": 84.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.206666, 22.916727, 28.068143, 30.208473 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 24.139999, "trend_reference": 32.925, "distance_from_trend": -0.266819, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.423013, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.150688, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.843341, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.326827, "excess_performance": -0.283623, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.266819, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174936, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.150688, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.803538, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.348433, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.55811, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.326827, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.385907, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8518688, "relative_activity": 1.127946, "balance": 0.385907, "dry_up": 1.074855, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.186062, "annualized_volatility": 0.814346, "from_high_reference": -0.582064, "from_low_reference": 0.30416 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.925, "fair_value_reference": 28.423013, "structural_low": 18.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.05953, "positive_rate": 0.34375, "directional_follow_through": 0.65625, "median_excess_return": -0.029243, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.431687, "worst_return": -0.256448, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.126984, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.098291, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.584018, "worst_return": -0.354154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.244785, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.184392, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.130137, "worst_return": -0.426401, "sufficient": true }, { 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"gate": "down", "direction": -74.789488, "energy": 84.09261, "activity_lines": [ 24.011333, 28.174545, 32.142524, 33.474236 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.549999, "volume": 8097913, "typical_volume": 7084213.5, "trend": 34.717667, "fair_value": 28.647564, "relative_strength": -43.050997, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.789566, "energy": 83.523177, "activity_lines": [ 22.584666, 25.910909, 30.900476, 32.525634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.15, "volume": 8482662, "typical_volume": 7231905.35, "trend": 34.147667, "fair_value": 28.561731, "relative_strength": -44.574481, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.421507, "energy": 81.272301, "activity_lines": [ 21.482, 24.073272, 29.699905, 31.585785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.1, "volume": 7371629, "typical_volume": 7380367.45, "trend": 33.440667, "fair_value": 28.478718, "relative_strength": -39.0567, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.498375, "energy": 74.931942, "activity_lines": [ 21.444667, 23.061454, 28.755809, 30.808516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.139999, "volume": 8518688, "typical_volume": 7552387.85, "trend": 32.925, "fair_value": 28.423013, "relative_strength": -34.843341, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.92983, "energy": 59.925153, "activity_lines": [ 22.206666, 22.916727, 28.068143, 30.208473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }