{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2cc052a7-16b9-4d9b-a2ef-8f5e52576301", "symbol": "TSMG", "name": "LEVERAGE SHARES 2X LONG TSM DAILY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Neutral compression", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 8.083, "architecture_energy": 15.345, "architecture_maturity": 31.524, "architecture_confidence": 73.052, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.87, "rotation_up": 16.98, "upward_expansion": 40.24, "deceleration": 86.96, "rotation_down": 40.65, "downward_expansion": 34.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.48892, 38.446658, 38.781762, 37.158688 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 37.8708, "trend_reference": 34.992973, "distance_from_trend": 0.08224, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.775975, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.662752, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 16.006393, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.241259, "excess_performance": 0.053805, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.08224, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.19299, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.662752, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.356243, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.160064, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.321009, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.241259, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.604896, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 333726, "relative_activity": 0.637897, "balance": 0.604896, "dry_up": 1.102245, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.189615, "annualized_volatility": 0.661229, "from_high_reference": -0.260913, "from_low_reference": 1.743659 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.992973, "fair_value_reference": 22.775975, "structural_low": 23.85, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": 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"volume": 475452, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.6584, "volume": 953080, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.4113, "volume": 486597, "typical_volume": 536782.05, "trend": 34.324867, "fair_value": 22.431864, "relative_strength": 16.977823, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.416608, "energy": 15.854488, "activity_lines": [ 37.744493, 39.755185, 38.808221, 36.891953 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.21, "volume": 533224, "typical_volume": 532986.55, "trend": 34.621533, "fair_value": 22.589619, "relative_strength": 14.522709, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.133308, "energy": 16.570104, "activity_lines": [ 36.450573, 38.834256, 38.685549, 36.949058 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.8708, "volume": 333726, "typical_volume": 523165.75, "trend": 34.992973, "fair_value": 22.775975, "relative_strength": 16.006393, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.083375, "energy": 15.345061, "activity_lines": [ 36.48892, 38.446658, 38.781762, 37.158688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }