{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2cc11856-c4a2-489a-9fc1-5c2e31e64784", "symbol": "ENVAR", "name": "Envar Holding AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 66.148, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Neutral compression", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.395, "architecture_energy": 68.793, "architecture_maturity": 33.66, "architecture_confidence": 78.822, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.36, "rotation_up": 72.92, "upward_expansion": 90.46, "deceleration": 42.1, "rotation_down": 12.99, "downward_expansion": 17.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.173334, 48.307273, 46.334286, 44.83785 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 55.0, "trend_reference": 44.150001, "distance_from_trend": 0.245753, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 36.993605, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.486743, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.039778, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.211454, "excess_performance": 0.149959, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.245753, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080336, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.486743, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.347779, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.020398, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.152001, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.211454, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.638316, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21253, "relative_activity": 1.026445, "balance": 1.638316, "dry_up": 1.828963, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116783, "annualized_volatility": 0.708848, "from_high_reference": -0.240332, "from_low_reference": 0.93662 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.150001, "fair_value_reference": 36.993605, "structural_low": 32.900002, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.250585, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.235977, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.250585, "worst_return": 0.250585, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"volume": 90619, "typical_volume": 19941.15, "trend": 44.463334, "fair_value": 36.617262, "relative_strength": 3.768015, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.460467, "energy": 39.733464, "activity_lines": [ 47.006668, 45.889092, 44.492858, 43.746667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.599998, "volume": 13536, "typical_volume": 20094.7, "trend": 44.223334, "fair_value": 36.781765, "relative_strength": -3.609585, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.400921, "energy": 46.954509, "activity_lines": [ 48.62, 46.745455, 45.237619, 44.142581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 55.0, "volume": 21253, "typical_volume": 20705.45, "trend": 44.150001, "fair_value": 36.993605, "relative_strength": 2.039778, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.394657, "energy": 68.792512, "activity_lines": [ 51.173334, 48.307273, 46.334286, 44.83785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }