{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2cc2ff0b-5f5a-457c-b309-5c6ee26b246b", "symbol": "300488", "name": "EST Tools Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.092, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.827, "architecture_energy": 31.504, "architecture_maturity": 23.802, "architecture_confidence": 67.674, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.1, "rotation_up": 16.8, "upward_expansion": 18.24, "deceleration": 68.05, "rotation_down": 63.15, "downward_expansion": 40.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.879333, 34.421477, 35.07729, 34.373334 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 31.49, "trend_reference": 33.80623, "distance_from_trend": -0.068515, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.130644, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.11942, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.407544, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.05122, "excess_performance": -0.05862, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.068515, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041772, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.11942, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.416137, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104075, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112348, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.05122, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.407751, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25486745, "relative_activity": 0.874864, "balance": 0.407751, "dry_up": 0.97603, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.186, "annualized_volatility": 0.791879, "from_high_reference": -0.362328, "from_low_reference": 0.221016 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.80623, "fair_value_reference": 28.130644, "structural_low": 25.790001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.034946, "positive_rate": 0.380952, "directional_follow_through": 0.380952, "median_excess_return": -0.017687, "regime_survival": 0.52381, "best_return": 0.143376, "worst_return": -0.135347, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.00373, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.045662, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.2467, "worst_return": -0.175432, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.019689, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.05862, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.023108, "worst_return": -0.191733, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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29417643.65, "trend": 33.951897, "fair_value": 28.03162, "relative_strength": -15.378601, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.521828, "energy": 8.776377, "activity_lines": [ 35.161705, 36.849214, 35.846309, 34.88988 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.299999, "volume": 24510385, "typical_volume": 28769690.75, "trend": 33.844564, "fair_value": 28.067303, "relative_strength": -15.704315, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.714164, "energy": 28.515827, "activity_lines": [ 32.110666, 35.271348, 35.304133, 34.525241 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.49, "volume": 25486745, "typical_volume": 29132226.4, "trend": 33.80623, "fair_value": 28.130644, "relative_strength": -10.407544, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.827247, "energy": 31.503932, "activity_lines": [ 30.879333, 34.421477, 35.07729, 34.373334 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }