{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2cc3d59a-ab64-4a61-ba93-077967185da9", "symbol": "300476", "name": "Victory Giant Technology (HuiZhou) Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 75.508, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -37.086, "architecture_energy": 62.452, "architecture_maturity": 9.97, "architecture_confidence": 69.649, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.22, "rotation_up": 16.46, "upward_expansion": 21.71, "deceleration": 43.36, "rotation_down": 71.93, "downward_expansion": 63.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 240.508668, 265.400909, 296.024738, 297.370083 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 280.200012, "trend_reference": 294.830882, "distance_from_trend": -0.049625, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 126.036832, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.22316, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.987215, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.065091, "excess_performance": 0.057691, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049625, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005306, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.22316, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.276199, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049872, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.30165, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.065091, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.465508, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 286201296, "relative_activity": 1.672684, "balance": 0.465508, "dry_up": 1.217347, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.171666, "annualized_volatility": 0.83265, "from_high_reference": -0.304024, "from_low_reference": 0.575219 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 294.830882, "fair_value_reference": 126.036832, "structural_low": 177.880005, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.096305, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.003613, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.096305, "worst_return": -0.096305, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.403882, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.23842, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.403882, "worst_return": -0.403882, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.395432, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.294543, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.395432, "worst_return": -0.395432, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.665326, "energy": 13.587183, "activity_lines": [ 307.742666, 325.990361, 324.399839, 313.73276 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 241.5, "volume": 175420269, "typical_volume": 165293619.7, "trend": 300.206139, "fair_value": 122.009925, "relative_strength": -14.147272, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.247951, "energy": 40.152866, "activity_lines": [ 281.854, 308.487998, 317.44508, 309.818484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 230.009995, "volume": 181235666, "typical_volume": 164953576.65, "trend": 298.338892, "fair_value": 123.336052, "relative_strength": -18.782335, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.10253, "energy": 61.967389, "activity_lines": [ 257.849332, 291.026725, 309.684622, 305.289701 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 190.399994, "volume": 190310110, "typical_volume": 166623129.7, "trend": 295.015193, "fair_value": 124.393451, "relative_strength": -31.811444, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -49.402661, "energy": 73.861778, "activity_lines": [ 229.90733, 268.367451, 298.373633, 298.325901 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 280.200012, "volume": 286201296, "typical_volume": 171103073.1, "trend": 294.830882, "fair_value": 126.036832, "relative_strength": -4.987215, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.086152, "energy": 62.452413, "activity_lines": [ 240.508668, 265.400909, 296.024738, 297.370083 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }