{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2ccabcc9-f1e3-402e-8b0e-94c9b8ad650d", "symbol": "NGAS", "name": "WisdomTree Natural Gas", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -78.113, "architecture_energy": 80.486, "architecture_maturity": 22.644, "architecture_confidence": 80.568, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.09, "rotation_up": 9.26, "upward_expansion": 17.69, "deceleration": 37.17, "rotation_down": 79.19, "downward_expansion": 93.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.076233, 4.270055, 4.399338, 4.537289 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.893, "trend_reference": 4.765267, "distance_from_trend": -0.183047, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.472609, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.479031, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.470176, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.324601, "excess_performance": -0.495493, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.183047, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083626, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.479031, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009196, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.354702, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013719, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.324601, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.725502, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 992095, "relative_activity": 1.41567, "balance": 0.725502, "dry_up": 1.49598, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079699, "annualized_volatility": 0.37168, "from_high_reference": -0.460803, "from_low_reference": 0.015654 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.765267, "fair_value_reference": 7.472609, "structural_low": 3.833, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.004435, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.53125, "median_excess_return": -0.025871, "regime_survival": 0.78125, "best_return": 0.299808, "worst_return": -0.387665, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.023663, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.069957, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.853933, "worst_return": -0.570213, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.054347, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.205159, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.870787, "worst_return": -0.693617, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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4.482973, 4.521221, 4.648225 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.9875, "volume": 1403146, "typical_volume": 753566.4, "trend": 4.783317, "fair_value": 7.541376, "relative_strength": -32.75859, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.825992, "energy": 77.014517, "activity_lines": [ 4.203333, 4.381182, 4.461383, 4.594729 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.893, "volume": 992095, "typical_volume": 700795.35, "trend": 4.765267, "fair_value": 7.472609, "relative_strength": -35.470176, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.112777, "energy": 80.486292, "activity_lines": [ 4.076233, 4.270055, 4.399338, 4.537289 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }