{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2ccc09bb-154e-4a3b-a74a-e432c9a9dfe3", "symbol": "FAHY", "name": "Invesco US High Yield Fallen Angels UCITS ETF", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 84.29, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.301, "architecture_energy": 26.157, "architecture_maturity": 59.781, "architecture_confidence": 74.135, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.58, "rotation_up": 22.6, "upward_expansion": 55.79, "deceleration": 93.93, "rotation_down": 27.74, "downward_expansion": 21.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.5944, 18.649846, 18.550034, 18.422106 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 18.4495, "trend_reference": 18.271082, "distance_from_trend": 0.009765, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.550911, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.051199, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.085597, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.014837, "excess_performance": -0.019836, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009765, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010829, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.051199, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000244, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.050856, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038122, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.014837, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.437343, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1372, "relative_activity": 0.444524, "balance": 0.437343, "dry_up": 1.859742, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009919, "annualized_volatility": 0.053665, "from_high_reference": -0.0251, "from_low_reference": 0.05326 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.271082, "fair_value_reference": 17.550911, "structural_low": 17.543259, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.009183, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.029587, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.04417, "worst_return": -0.0816, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.019741, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.058323, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.069339, "worst_return": -0.053131, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.014988, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.077681, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.091596, "worst_return": -0.073964, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03292, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.027071, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01736, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006496, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.001565, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 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17.515465, "relative_strength": -4.595533, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.293073, "energy": 45.599037, "activity_lines": [ 18.6829, 18.688632, 18.512876, 18.382617 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 18.668501, "volume": 731, "typical_volume": 3119.8, "trend": 18.258366, "fair_value": 17.534161, "relative_strength": -5.092933, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.800466, "energy": 39.869392, "activity_lines": [ 18.673067, 18.691646, 18.543936, 18.409775 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 18.4495, "volume": 1372, "typical_volume": 3086.45, "trend": 18.271082, "fair_value": 17.550911, "relative_strength": -5.085597, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.301059, "energy": 26.157043, "activity_lines": [ 18.5944, 18.649846, 18.550034, 18.422106 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }