{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2cd15eff-e228-454e-a290-011502c2dc93", "symbol": "600269", "name": "Jiangxi Ganyue Expressway CO.,LTD.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.74, "architecture_energy": 43.375, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 64.293, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.51, "rotation_up": 26.54, "upward_expansion": 17.57, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 41.75, "downward_expansion": 65.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.001333, 3.993462, 4.10383, 4.257631 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.9, "trend_reference": 4.47968, "distance_from_trend": -0.129402, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.626085, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.156955, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.759791, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.212121, "excess_performance": -0.168917, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.129402, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089558, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.156955, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135175, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.177598, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015668, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.212121, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.399483, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 131466841, "relative_activity": 1.824443, "balance": 0.399483, "dry_up": 1.876608, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052237, "annualized_volatility": 0.183342, "from_high_reference": -0.302326, "from_low_reference": 0.020729 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.47968, "fair_value_reference": 4.626085, "structural_low": 3.8208, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.001961, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.023343, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.07451, "worst_return": -0.104, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.010451, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.066522, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.049231, "worst_return": -0.1936, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.075214, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.130871, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.153846, "worst_return": -0.164486, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 4.64468, "fair_value": 4.610194, "relative_strength": -17.763743, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.60067, "energy": 74.703269, "activity_lines": [ 3.977333, 4.056218, 4.235552, 4.407312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.01, "volume": 157890107, "typical_volume": 69671449.05, "trend": 4.603013, "fair_value": 4.614434, "relative_strength": -13.200328, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.556431, "energy": 62.883594, "activity_lines": [ 3.993093, 4.030938, 4.196646, 4.366365 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.96, "volume": 140555871, "typical_volume": 70010378.5, "trend": 4.55968, "fair_value": 4.618354, "relative_strength": -14.840808, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.701699, "energy": 56.130145, "activity_lines": [ 3.993653, 4.004931, 4.157358, 4.32488 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.14, "volume": 110990059, "typical_volume": 70158703.85, "trend": 4.52268, "fair_value": 4.623135, "relative_strength": -10.86227, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.674108, "energy": 40.112894, "activity_lines": [ 4.048133, 4.019469, 4.139975, 4.297804 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.9, "volume": 131466841, "typical_volume": 72058598.5, "trend": 4.47968, "fair_value": 4.626085, "relative_strength": -17.759791, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.739759, "energy": 43.374517, "activity_lines": [ 4.001333, 3.993462, 4.10383, 4.257631 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }