{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2cd8b9fe-4139-434b-9dcf-66d125ef279b", "symbol": "PRIME", "name": "Prime Road Power Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.976, "architecture_energy": 31.127, "architecture_maturity": 18.829, "architecture_confidence": 94.272, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.55, "rotation_up": 18.81, "upward_expansion": 7.35, "deceleration": 40.87, "rotation_down": 49.96, "downward_expansion": 78.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.05, 0.051273, 0.052333, 0.05314 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.05, "trend_reference": 0.054667, "distance_from_trend": -0.085366, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.284808, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.824443, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -31.703129, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.192325, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.085366, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093923, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.824443, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048189, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.317031, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064762, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.790593, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3329800, "relative_activity": 0.769024, "balance": 0.790593, "dry_up": 1.389979, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.230769, "annualized_volatility": 0.871707, "from_high_reference": -0.444444, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.054667, "fair_value_reference": 0.284808, "structural_low": 0.04, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.011408, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.015258, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.166667, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.021875, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.057037, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.144855, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.168376, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.375, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.375, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.461772, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.311558, "worst_return": -0.594203, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2021-07-09", "end": "2021-08-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010638, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2021-08-20", "end": "2021-11-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076087, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2021-11-12", "end": "2022-01-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070352, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-02-04", "end": "2023-01-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.262032, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-02-03", "end": "2023-02-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044586, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-02-24", "end": "2023-03-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059211, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-03-24", "end": "2023-08-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.050725, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-08-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.938462, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.166667, 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"2026-07-10", "close": 0.05, "volume": 2455800, "typical_volume": 4550845.0, "trend": 0.056, "fair_value": 0.3175, "relative_strength": -35.359397, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.583387, "energy": 21.449985, "activity_lines": [ 0.053333, 0.053455, 0.053667, 0.054559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.05, "volume": 11303400, "typical_volume": 4762515.0, "trend": 0.055667, "fair_value": 0.309103, "relative_strength": -35.112742, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.456447, "energy": 22.342065, "activity_lines": [ 0.052, 0.052909, 0.053238, 0.054172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.05, "volume": 6173900, "typical_volume": 4744520.0, "trend": 0.055333, "fair_value": 0.300897, "relative_strength": -34.348509, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.341458, "energy": 21.378248, "activity_lines": [ 0.051333, 0.052364, 0.052905, 0.053806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.05, "volume": 3266800, "typical_volume": 4651185.0, "trend": 0.055, "fair_value": 0.292885, "relative_strength": -32.863521, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.136393, "energy": 30.816424, "activity_lines": [ 0.050667, 0.051818, 0.052619, 0.053462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.05, "volume": 3329800, "typical_volume": 4329905.0, "trend": 0.054667, "fair_value": 0.284808, "relative_strength": -31.703129, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.9755, "energy": 31.127136, "activity_lines": [ 0.05, 0.051273, 0.052333, 0.05314 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }