{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2cd8cd51-d01a-4c19-ac1c-b78fe4ecfb2d", "symbol": "SIXO", "name": "ALLIANZIM U.S. EQUITY 6 MONTH BUFFER10 APR/OCT ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 61.675, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.111, "architecture_energy": 92.925, "architecture_maturity": 33.924, "architecture_confidence": 80.429, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.38, "rotation_up": 72.77, "upward_expansion": 99.27, "deceleration": 39.35, "rotation_down": 23.22, "downward_expansion": 21.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.119427, 35.992384, 35.759822, 35.481711 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 36.2947, "trend_reference": 35.207287, "distance_from_trend": 0.030886, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.991779, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.134501, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.975579, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.035808, "excess_performance": -0.089817, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.030886, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013343, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.134501, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002644, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069756, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006234, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.035808, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 11.710214, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37127, "relative_activity": 0.068077, "balance": 11.710214, "dry_up": 0.114658, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005434, "annualized_volatility": 0.04984, "from_high_reference": -8e-06, "from_low_reference": 0.083101 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.207287, "fair_value_reference": 31.991779, "structural_low": 33.65, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.00708, "positive_rate": 0.742857, "directional_follow_through": 0.742857, "median_excess_return": -0.00386, "regime_survival": 0.828571, "best_return": 0.03687, "worst_return": -0.036303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.021487, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -0.021733, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.050571, "worst_return": -0.009112, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.044594, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.046242, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.097237, "worst_return": -0.00608, "sufficient": true }, 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72.418527, "activity_lines": [ 35.734547, 35.668151, 35.329073, 35.162262 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 36.03, "volume": 52936, "typical_volume": 605632.85, "trend": 35.039827, "fair_value": 31.780481, "relative_strength": -6.195575, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.139383, "energy": 88.317667, "activity_lines": [ 35.845053, 35.748549, 35.422331, 35.229298 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.94, "volume": 23753, "typical_volume": 591057.2, "trend": 35.084547, "fair_value": 31.832286, "relative_strength": -4.769434, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.650628, "energy": 86.889354, "activity_lines": [ 35.895, 35.798222, 35.502352, 35.287374 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.9505, "volume": 14757, "typical_volume": 548028.8, "trend": 35.120393, "fair_value": 31.883699, "relative_strength": -4.01815, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.18162, "energy": 87.261059, "activity_lines": [ 35.930073, 35.840349, 35.578706, 35.343242 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.1391, "volume": 174488, "typical_volume": 550106.55, "trend": 35.16713, "fair_value": 31.937255, "relative_strength": -4.35083, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.48253, "energy": 91.357754, "activity_lines": [ 36.016787, 35.907485, 35.666448, 35.408965 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.2947, "volume": 37127, "typical_volume": 545371.25, "trend": 35.207287, "fair_value": 31.991779, "relative_strength": -6.975579, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.11101, "energy": 92.925327, "activity_lines": [ 36.119427, 35.992384, 35.759822, 35.481711 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }