{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2cdf7390-a01c-49df-89b1-16e07eb32634", "symbol": "FTXH", "name": "FIRST TRUST NASDAQ PHARMACEUTICALS ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.249, "architecture_energy": 59.793, "architecture_maturity": 44.653, "architecture_confidence": 79.838, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.88, "rotation_up": 71.84, "upward_expansion": 87.14, "deceleration": 61.65, "rotation_down": 16.87, "downward_expansion": 9.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.048513, 38.529387, 37.069154, 36.248942 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 39.53, "trend_reference": 35.372911, "distance_from_trend": 0.117522, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.554538, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.384368, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.55292, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.118627, "excess_performance": -0.068827, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.117522, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054182, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.384368, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.15696, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.045529, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114687, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.118627, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 23.170324, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1327534, "relative_activity": 0.729836, "balance": 23.170324, "dry_up": 4.908287, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042244, "annualized_volatility": 0.173445, "from_high_reference": -0.07791, "from_low_reference": 0.515124 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.372911, "fair_value_reference": 28.554538, "structural_low": 32.784305, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.007159, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.002719, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.078585, "worst_return": -0.074835, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.01549, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.031902, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.172782, "worst_return": -0.08412, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.033266, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.006421, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.212258, "worst_return": -0.10901, "sufficient": true }, { 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89.2624, "activity_lines": [ 38.376763, 37.325147, 35.992289, 35.445571 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.97, "volume": 32556056, "typical_volume": 1686544.85, "trend": 34.975342, "fair_value": 28.379394, "relative_strength": 9.670929, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.437673, "energy": 80.502318, "activity_lines": [ 38.726507, 37.785307, 36.360163, 35.715191 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.8878, "volume": 1345811, "typical_volume": 1753197.55, "trend": 35.169322, "fair_value": 28.467889, "relative_strength": 8.455142, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.954275, "energy": 59.35031, "activity_lines": [ 38.80346, 38.136285, 36.696733, 35.967608 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.53, "volume": 1327534, "typical_volume": 1818948.4, "trend": 35.372911, "fair_value": 28.554538, "relative_strength": 4.55292, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.248585, "energy": 59.792557, "activity_lines": [ 39.048513, 38.529387, 37.069154, 36.248942 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }