{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2ce7538f-d6c4-400d-8809-7b0fb3075ca7", "symbol": "603661", "name": "Henglin Home Furnishings Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 68.037, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.544, "architecture_energy": 36.708, "architecture_maturity": 28.498, "architecture_confidence": 56.035, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.04, "rotation_up": 11.7, "upward_expansion": 13.46, "deceleration": 60.57, "rotation_down": 65.61, "downward_expansion": 67.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.980667, 32.418182, 32.567476, 32.54 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 32.02, "trend_reference": 32.676, "distance_from_trend": -0.020076, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.076322, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.031936, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.483313, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.069186, "excess_performance": -0.025982, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020076, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008187, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.031936, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054519, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.004833, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104913, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.069186, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.370952, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12846136, "relative_activity": 1.025044, "balance": 0.370952, "dry_up": 1.165398, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.157522, "annualized_volatility": 0.653621, "from_high_reference": -0.24959, "from_low_reference": 0.231538 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.676, "fair_value_reference": 33.076322, "structural_low": 26.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.007824, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.001043, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.232211, "worst_return": -0.104173, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.009091, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.02817, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.226506, "worst_return": -0.098956, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.081589, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.052884, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.41637, "worst_return": -0.161742, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003392, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052162, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.025533, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.091371, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.094872, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", 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14303403, "typical_volume": 11700410.0, "trend": 32.810666, "fair_value": 33.088791, "relative_strength": -12.395645, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.386989, "energy": 11.885738, "activity_lines": [ 32.376666, 33.802, 33.008619, 32.892666 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.0, "volume": 10224296, "typical_volume": 12046295.3, "trend": 32.675666, "fair_value": 33.070962, "relative_strength": -10.527679, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.42982, "energy": 28.42815, "activity_lines": [ 30.106666, 32.703454, 32.584476, 32.582301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.02, "volume": 12846136, "typical_volume": 12532276.0, "trend": 32.676, "fair_value": 33.076322, "relative_strength": -0.483313, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.544267, "energy": 36.708069, "activity_lines": [ 29.980667, 32.418182, 32.567476, 32.54 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }