{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2cef6a02-3361-41b1-b006-dce24596e29e", "symbol": "XSLV", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR II S&P SMALLCAP LOW VOLATILITY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.808, "architecture_energy": 60.258, "architecture_maturity": 38.159, "architecture_confidence": 72.556, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.54, "rotation_up": 69.57, "upward_expansion": 85.63, "deceleration": 54.16, "rotation_down": 16.05, "downward_expansion": 9.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.614747, 53.118763, 51.864409, 50.960105 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 53.596, "trend_reference": 49.960823, "distance_from_trend": 0.072761, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.664624, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.199965, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.862192, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.075851, "excess_performance": -0.049774, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.072761, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04526, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.199965, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05424, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.008622, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037119, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.075851, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.411344, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17109, "relative_activity": 0.387082, "balance": 1.411344, "dry_up": 1.104912, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027108, "annualized_volatility": 0.130166, "from_high_reference": -0.017489, "from_low_reference": 0.225152 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.960823, "fair_value_reference": 44.664624, "structural_low": 46.01194, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.001068, "positive_rate": 0.482759, "directional_follow_through": 0.482759, "median_excess_return": -0.010758, "regime_survival": 0.689655, "best_return": 0.066143, "worst_return": -0.087362, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.007875, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.020098, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.08159, "worst_return": -0.115808, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.015523, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.055716, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.039766, "worst_return": -0.125666, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.014318, "energy": 89.271852, "activity_lines": [ 52.959807, 52.038173, 50.849577, 50.153665 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 53.6996, "volume": 37107, "typical_volume": 43148.0, "trend": 49.494136, "fair_value": 44.487055, "relative_strength": 3.930914, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.065297, "energy": 84.585708, "activity_lines": [ 53.351613, 52.491734, 51.218956, 50.440001 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.7052, "volume": 115370, "typical_volume": 47012.7, "trend": 49.745445, "fair_value": 44.575409, "relative_strength": 2.793617, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.550769, "energy": 75.312515, "activity_lines": [ 53.533553, 52.850882, 51.562291, 50.711682 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.596, "volume": 17109, "typical_volume": 44199.9, "trend": 49.960823, "fair_value": 44.664624, "relative_strength": -0.862192, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.807864, "energy": 60.258273, "activity_lines": [ 53.614747, 53.118763, 51.864409, 50.960105 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }