{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "2ceff20a-700c-4d76-9c6a-2f4d1a3530f0",
    "symbol": "GFL",
    "name": "GFL Environmental Inc.",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch",
    "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch",
    "confidence": 73.893,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 29.135,
    "architecture_energy": 46.244,
    "architecture_maturity": 7.023,
    "architecture_confidence": 57.476,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 28.6,
        "rotation_up": 69.41,
        "upward_expansion": 55.64,
        "deceleration": 14.62,
        "rotation_down": 15.11,
        "downward_expansion": 23.64
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        56.972399,
        55.726139,
        53.869121,
        54.402036
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 57.599998,
    "trend_reference": 55.502374,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.037793,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 56.046922,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.02771,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -13.602275,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.007198,
    "excess_performance": -0.127619,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.037793,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.038378,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.02771,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.124112,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.136023,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.155864,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.007198,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.732653,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2940800,
      "relative_activity": 0.947613,
      "balance": 0.732653,
      "dry_up": 1.238982,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.059951,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.37161,
      "from_high_reference": -0.189337,
      "from_low_reference": 0.245675
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 55.502374,
      "fair_value_reference": 56.046922,
      "structural_low": 46.240002,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.019393,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.001119,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.065102,
        "worst_return": -0.103888,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.007981,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.013473,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.045239,
        "worst_return": -0.029277,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.188499,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.148465,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.215334,
        "worst_return": 0.161665,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.288018,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.153333,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.343371,
        "worst_return": 0.232665,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-09-29",
        "end": "2023-12-29",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.060268,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-01-05",
        "end": "2024-01-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.048792,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-01-26",
        "end": "2024-02-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.103853,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-02-23",
        "end": "2024-03-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.049272,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-03-22",
        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.096909,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2024-06-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.227508,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-06-21",
        "end": "2024-09-20",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.015426,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-09-27",
        "end": "2024-10-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.074723,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-25",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.144935,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.089843,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-21",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.032454,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-07-04",
        "end": "2025-09-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.00106,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-10-03",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.137904,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.00501,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 45.91798,
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        "typical_volume": 1701170.0,
        "trend": 46.492543,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-08-25",
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      },
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      },
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
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      },
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 55.400002,
        "volume": 4355800,
        "typical_volume": 2828275.0,
        "trend": 55.688669,
        "fair_value": 55.802826,
        "relative_strength": -16.572502,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -2.377135,
        "energy": 24.062509,
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          55.216306,
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          52.907705,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 56.009998,
        "volume": 3438200,
        "typical_volume": 2908870.0,
        "trend": 55.584462,
        "fair_value": 55.870839,
        "relative_strength": -15.197366,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 19.9855,
        "energy": 31.906336,
        "activity_lines": [
          55.835104,
          53.870741,
          53.101891,
          54.1212
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 57.889999,
        "volume": 4645300,
        "typical_volume": 3063560.0,
        "trend": 55.552582,
        "fair_value": 55.959842,
        "relative_strength": -11.17413,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 31.651998,
        "energy": 43.96942,
        "activity_lines": [
          56.616506,
          54.902804,
          53.496727,
          54.269944
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 57.599998,
        "volume": 2940800,
        "typical_volume": 3103375.0,
        "trend": 55.502374,
        "fair_value": 56.046922,
        "relative_strength": -13.602275,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 29.135029,
        "energy": 46.243683,
        "activity_lines": [
          56.972399,
          55.726139,
          53.869121,
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}