{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2cf13382-559c-4e75-a984-bdd5f7230aab", "symbol": "MNS", "name": "Royal Canadian Mint - Canadian Silver Reserves", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.21, "architecture_energy": 49.769, "architecture_maturity": 38.443, "architecture_confidence": 94.853, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.1, "rotation_up": 23.66, "upward_expansion": 7.67, "deceleration": 55.19, "rotation_down": 51.53, "downward_expansion": 78.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.550667, 47.852909, 51.122952, 53.398344 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 50.259998, "trend_reference": 56.915, "distance_from_trend": -0.116929, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 32.110705, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.56521, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.804619, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.137907, "excess_performance": -0.258329, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116929, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011372, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.56521, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.514608, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118046, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.333337, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.137907, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.39207, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13500, "relative_activity": 0.501579, "balance": 0.39207, "dry_up": 0.742151, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082754, "annualized_volatility": 0.479979, "from_high_reference": -0.435281, "from_low_reference": 0.697973 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.915, "fair_value_reference": 32.110705, "structural_low": 43.900002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.005331, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.007103, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.183409, "worst_return": -0.117489, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.003922, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.036398, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.345916, "worst_return": -0.126103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.0023, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.080207, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.281831, "worst_return": -0.213723, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.123543, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.095374, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.114403, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001231, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.062092, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060481, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.081285, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.200691, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.265916, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0052, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 17.67, "volume": 3500, "typical_volume": 6895.0, "trend": 17.685667, "fair_value": 17.744038, "relative_strength": 4.836746, "stage": 3, 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.312104, "energy": 83.385465, "activity_lines": [ 47.032666, 49.522, 53.011667, 55.355699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.950001, "volume": 36500, "typical_volume": 30875.0, "trend": 57.849667, "fair_value": 31.719295, "relative_strength": -14.778848, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.66082, "energy": 67.378092, "activity_lines": [ 46.798, 48.606364, 52.228857, 54.619076 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.990002, "volume": 4200, "typical_volume": 28675.0, "trend": 57.321667, "fair_value": 31.90218, "relative_strength": -16.376493, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.418153, "energy": 64.492346, "activity_lines": [ 46.446667, 47.722364, 51.435762, 53.853936 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.259998, "volume": 13500, "typical_volume": 26915.0, "trend": 56.915, "fair_value": 32.110705, "relative_strength": -11.804619, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.209917, "energy": 49.769145, "activity_lines": [ 47.550667, 47.852909, 51.122952, 53.398344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }