{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2cf2f009-8f12-4937-9c2e-316a9a73ab80", "symbol": "CARBORUNIV", "name": "Carborundum Universal Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.753, "architecture_energy": 20.709, "architecture_maturity": 67.642, "architecture_confidence": 95.772, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.76, "rotation_up": 24.17, "upward_expansion": 55.84, "deceleration": 90.92, "rotation_down": 27.59, "downward_expansion": 19.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 1075.244531, 1092.523544, 1071.299095, 1019.216413 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1097.0, "trend_reference": 950.935022, "distance_from_trend": 0.153601, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1128.934749, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.028288, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 18.948202, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.42209, "excess_performance": 0.465799, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.153601, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092168, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.028288, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067336, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.189482, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000381, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.42209, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.886427, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 949910, "relative_activity": 0.967542, "balance": 1.886427, "dry_up": 0.799347, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080902, "annualized_volatility": 0.385086, "from_high_reference": -0.160609, "from_low_reference": 0.492111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 950.935022, "fair_value_reference": 1128.934749, "structural_low": 735.200012, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.015725, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.01668, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.092929, "worst_return": -0.047471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.05632, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.043539, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.215278, "worst_return": -0.073615, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.201222, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.073032, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.30672, "worst_return": -0.356984, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.221827, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049499, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051869, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.300629, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.14697, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.00144, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049863, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.109647, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036857, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031209, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1079.931519, "volume": 1832033, "typical_volume": 846234.8, "trend": 1079.354323, "fair_value": 749.419916, "relative_strength": 3.313089, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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950155.35, "trend": 934.283588, "fair_value": 1129.962531, "relative_strength": 20.013945, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.432565, "energy": 27.951904, "activity_lines": [ 1081.208683, 1096.345226, 1056.340723, 1000.805417 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1063.800049, "volume": 481445, "typical_volume": 954820.45, "trend": 941.146027, "fair_value": 1128.78054, "relative_strength": 16.842621, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.813464, "energy": 21.941558, "activity_lines": [ 1070.133936, 1091.47939, 1062.972769, 1009.161318 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1097.0, "volume": 949910, "typical_volume": 981776.15, "trend": 950.935022, "fair_value": 1128.934749, "relative_strength": 18.948202, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.752692, "energy": 20.708543, "activity_lines": [ 1075.244531, 1092.523544, 1071.299095, 1019.216413 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }