{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2cf4c502-5641-412a-8874-844a20692e1e", "symbol": "TSLA", "name": "Tesla, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.052, "architecture_energy": 83.172, "architecture_maturity": 17.913, "architecture_confidence": 78.604, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.26, "rotation_up": 10.7, "upward_expansion": 22.16, "deceleration": 34.17, "rotation_down": 77.44, "downward_expansion": 93.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 290.043331, 311.379998, 328.040474, 331.73032 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 288.549988, "trend_reference": 339.038331, "distance_from_trend": -0.148916, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 274.834359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.049905, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.634364, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.169999, "excess_performance": -0.344245, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.148916, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05002, "read": "Falling" 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261.950012, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.036806, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.072874, "regime_survival": 0.611111, "best_return": 0.536488, "worst_return": -0.334551, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.098773, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.030612, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.403195, "worst_return": -0.30138, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.09967, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.095588, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.53149, "worst_return": -0.254003, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"volume": 2155, "typical_volume": 2217.2, "trend": 342.104998, "fair_value": 274.392372, "relative_strength": -36.374885, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.813541, "energy": 84.996521, "activity_lines": [ 299.213336, 319.461818, 332.343332, 335.185482 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 288.549988, "volume": 1323, "typical_volume": 2159.35, "trend": 339.038331, "fair_value": 274.834359, "relative_strength": -32.634364, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.051894, "energy": 83.171812, "activity_lines": [ 290.043331, 311.379998, 328.040474, 331.73032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }