{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2cff3791-da67-42b9-85b2-b3b0b03d783f", "symbol": "JPJY", "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI Japan UCITS ETF", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.725, "architecture_energy": 29.188, "architecture_maturity": 60.972, "architecture_confidence": 86.647, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.81, "rotation_up": 37.31, "upward_expansion": 63.82, "deceleration": 82.64, "rotation_down": 27.36, "downward_expansion": 20.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 13901.915495, 13958.753871, 13777.514481, 13524.127214 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14091.650391, "trend_reference": 13215.965365, "distance_from_trend": 0.06626, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9989.657881, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.410624, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.855987, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.092433, "excess_performance": 0.039121, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.06626, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062118, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.410624, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001336, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.06856, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098695, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.092433, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 9.399221, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1822, "relative_activity": 0.165813, "balance": 9.399221, "dry_up": 0.390099, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030657, "annualized_volatility": 0.196086, "from_high_reference": -0.022251, "from_low_reference": 0.38699 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13215.965365, "fair_value_reference": 9989.657881, "structural_low": 11852.730469, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.025697, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.000791, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.064469, "worst_return": -0.027531, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.031434, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.045029, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.1608, "worst_return": -0.056029, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.026502, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.004552, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.181511, "worst_return": -0.038936, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029461, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026636, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010162, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.08619, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002193, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00672, "active": false }, { 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13711.92607, 13463.849168 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14091.650391, "volume": 1822, "typical_volume": 10988.25, "trend": 13215.965365, "fair_value": 9989.657881, "relative_strength": 6.855987, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.725013, "energy": 29.187648, "activity_lines": [ 13901.915495, 13958.753871, 13777.514481, 13524.127214 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }