{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2d081b8e-e32e-426b-9e2c-6f52b6d9eae8", "symbol": "ACX", "name": "Acerinox, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.753, "architecture_energy": 82.892, "architecture_maturity": 51.696, "architecture_confidence": 85.217, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.7, "rotation_up": 74.64, "upward_expansion": 92.13, "deceleration": 46.61, "rotation_down": 12.24, "downward_expansion": 18.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.478601, 16.907816, 16.114787, 15.324114 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.969999, "trend_reference": 14.419862, "distance_from_trend": 0.246198, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.367319, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.733331, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 18.441093, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.350113, "excess_performance": 0.225682, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.246198, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.126442, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.733331, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.236918, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.184411, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052555, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.350113, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.398361, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3171563, "relative_activity": 0.918936, "balance": 1.398361, "dry_up": 1.131506, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057272, "annualized_volatility": 0.320461, "from_high_reference": -0.032831, "from_low_reference": 0.761858 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.419862, "fair_value_reference": 10.367319, "structural_low": 11.35, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.000409, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001019, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.165379, "worst_return": -0.094646, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.013359, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.03247, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.383739, "worst_return": -0.08609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.042481, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.043768, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.313967, "worst_return": -0.145762, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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14.852207, 14.291223 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.699029, "volume": 5596041, "typical_volume": 3874146.65, "trend": 13.724093, "fair_value": 10.129955, "relative_strength": 9.758625, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.207206, "energy": 50.842501, "activity_lines": [ 15.869756, 15.845528, 15.004188, 14.427254 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.34, "volume": 3781206, "typical_volume": 3792384.0, "trend": 13.881278, "fair_value": 10.179921, "relative_strength": 14.893365, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.15899, "energy": 46.007183, "activity_lines": [ 15.97352, 15.974918, 15.205219, 14.596023 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.209999, "volume": 5110698, "typical_volume": 3593060.95, "trend": 14.094289, "fair_value": 10.244043, "relative_strength": 24.871648, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.477899, "energy": 65.971789, "activity_lines": [ 16.721989, 16.411217, 15.570964, 14.875295 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.33, "volume": 3557378, "typical_volume": 3486292.4, "trend": 14.249012, "fair_value": 10.303574, "relative_strength": 17.07961, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.155159, "energy": 61.369244, "activity_lines": [ 17.060096, 16.620244, 15.825328, 15.08405 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.969999, "volume": 3171563, "typical_volume": 3451340.8, "trend": 14.419862, "fair_value": 10.367319, "relative_strength": 18.441093, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.752612, "energy": 82.892439, "activity_lines": [ 17.478601, 16.907816, 16.114787, 15.324114 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }