{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2d0dc74c-ce5c-4a2f-b3f8-78a5f3927afc", "symbol": "CALSOFT", "name": "California Software Company Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.908, "architecture_energy": 27.552, "architecture_maturity": 63.662, "architecture_confidence": 88.814, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.75, "rotation_up": 25.53, "upward_expansion": 54.77, "deceleration": 92.6, "rotation_down": 27.25, "downward_expansion": 20.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.814, 22.161455, 21.158, 19.389377 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 22.01, "trend_reference": 17.370667, "distance_from_trend": 0.267079, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.359026, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.345435, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 30.784665, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.545646, "excess_performance": 0.589355, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.267079, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.132697, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.345435, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.180278, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.307847, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.354909, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.545646, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.215004, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 187145, "relative_activity": 0.293736, "balance": 0.215004, "dry_up": 0.648598, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118967, "annualized_volatility": 0.901499, "from_high_reference": -0.209127, "from_low_reference": 1.019266 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.370667, "fair_value_reference": 16.359026, "structural_low": 10.9, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.025714, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.036299, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.754237, "worst_return": -0.333071, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.110283, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.066618, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.860169, "worst_return": -0.316138, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.044735, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.07883, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.851695, "worst_return": -0.435388, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.192115, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.087405, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005948, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.275714, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.123359, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.112296, "active": false 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"activity_lines": [ 22.934667, 22.191819, 19.233048, 17.719549 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 22.299999, "volume": 397768, "typical_volume": 620126.75, "trend": 16.512667, "fair_value": 16.174218, "relative_strength": 39.106663, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.62177, "energy": 56.90859, "activity_lines": [ 22.872, 22.346727, 19.738333, 18.106602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.120001, "volume": 530760, "typical_volume": 634741.5, "trend": 16.732, "fair_value": 16.219859, "relative_strength": 36.288775, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.000183, "energy": 44.786519, "activity_lines": [ 22.656, 22.324364, 20.188429, 18.468366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.780001, "volume": 722932, "typical_volume": 637795.2, "trend": 16.958, "fair_value": 16.267167, "relative_strength": 36.321452, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.691686, "energy": 31.588998, "activity_lines": [ 22.182001, 22.275273, 20.560619, 18.794043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.32, "volume": 212101, "typical_volume": 644174.0, "trend": 17.144333, "fair_value": 16.309923, "relative_strength": 28.981499, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.863029, "energy": 26.807512, "activity_lines": [ 21.798, 22.160182, 20.846762, 19.075463 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.01, "volume": 187145, "typical_volume": 637119.8, "trend": 17.370667, "fair_value": 16.359026, "relative_strength": 30.784665, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.907956, "energy": 27.552155, "activity_lines": [ 21.814, 22.161455, 21.158, 19.389377 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }