{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2d188c07-959b-4fd7-9a07-0141ec3ee9dc", "symbol": "SUR", "name": "Surteco Group SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -91.347, "architecture_energy": 94.288, "architecture_maturity": 56.735, "architecture_confidence": 76.697, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.01, "rotation_up": 9.19, "upward_expansion": 21.42, "deceleration": 37.26, "rotation_down": 82.18, "downward_expansion": 94.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.696667, 9.09, 9.426429, 9.83871 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.05, "trend_reference": 10.511667, "distance_from_trend": -0.234184, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.555453, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.446943, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.711318, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.361111, "excess_performance": -0.425751, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.234184, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068252, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.446943, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105504, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.347113, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117102, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.361111, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.962258, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12110, "relative_activity": 2.636133, "balance": 0.962258, "dry_up": 1.893673, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055423, "annualized_volatility": 0.225771, "from_high_reference": -0.44863, "from_low_reference": 0.012579 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.511667, "fair_value_reference": 14.555453, "structural_low": 7.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.007092, "positive_rate": 0.394737, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.045705, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.188073, "worst_return": -0.141914, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.005263, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.109383, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.046667, "worst_return": -0.205212, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.103811, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.159359, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.021277, "worst_return": -0.20086, "sufficient": true }, 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-18.049407, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.760205, "energy": 40.60697, "activity_lines": [ 9.72, 9.687273, 9.848095, 10.262366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.0, "volume": 7518, "typical_volume": 4300.4, "trend": 10.695, "fair_value": 14.678762, "relative_strength": -25.10181, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.248139, "energy": 58.630768, "activity_lines": [ 9.486667, 9.56, 9.739762, 10.148925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.45, "volume": 3797, "typical_volume": 4326.7, "trend": 10.613333, "fair_value": 14.61776, "relative_strength": -30.414733, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.812097, "energy": 69.992302, "activity_lines": [ 9.12, 9.348182, 9.594524, 10.004086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.05, "volume": 12110, "typical_volume": 4593.85, "trend": 10.511667, "fair_value": 14.555453, "relative_strength": -34.711318, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.347266, "energy": 94.287783, "activity_lines": [ 8.696667, 9.09, 9.426429, 9.83871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }