{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2d19cdaf-bfcc-47ad-9493-0aaa2533c528", "symbol": "ALNMG", "name": "NetMedia Group soci\u00e9t\u00e9 anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.951, "architecture_energy": 46.443, "architecture_maturity": 56.323, "architecture_confidence": 89.128, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.3, "rotation_up": 25.77, "upward_expansion": 8.36, "deceleration": 45.95, "rotation_down": 45.44, "downward_expansion": 79.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.462867, 0.4654, 0.487995, 0.51672 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.47, "trend_reference": 0.558167, "distance_from_trend": -0.157958, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.106777, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.77691, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -31.109545, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.318841, "excess_performance": -0.372152, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.157958, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115098, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.77691, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022608, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.311095, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040397, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.318841, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.812556, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7788, "relative_activity": 0.113849, "balance": 2.812556, "dry_up": 0.117653, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0982, "annualized_volatility": 0.581807, "from_high_reference": -0.661871, "from_low_reference": 0.093023 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.558167, "fair_value_reference": 2.106777, "structural_low": 0.43, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 60, "median_return": -0.047044, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.65, "median_excess_return": -0.051632, "regime_survival": 0.966667, "best_return": 0.37931, "worst_return": -0.388679, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.178357, "positive_rate": 0.157895, "directional_follow_through": 0.842105, "median_excess_return": -0.205542, "regime_survival": 0.894737, "best_return": 0.26534, "worst_return": -0.379661, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.325137, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.350314, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": -0.198394, "worst_return": -0.459109, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.363158, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.116541, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.64, "volume": 15949, "typical_volume": 9676.2, "trend": 8.726, "fair_value": 18.728013, "relative_strength": -39.522119, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.157707, "energy": 45.047428, "activity_lines": [ 6.853333, 6.975273, 7.44681, 7.967656 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 6.3, "volume": 11706, "typical_volume": 9521.15, "trend": 8.619333, "fair_value": 18.492756, "relative_strength": -42.455919, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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0.512057, 0.54588 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.477, "volume": 10286, "typical_volume": 80544.75, "trend": 0.580833, "fair_value": 2.234738, "relative_strength": -31.092037, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.904109, "energy": 54.971976, "activity_lines": [ 0.467267, 0.482255, 0.505467, 0.53843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.44, "volume": 7141, "typical_volume": 78160.0, "trend": 0.570167, "fair_value": 2.188072, "relative_strength": -35.405288, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.278152, "energy": 71.354611, "activity_lines": [ 0.457467, 0.471509, 0.496643, 0.529344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.468, "volume": 6978, "typical_volume": 74274.95, "trend": 0.5635, "fair_value": 2.147482, "relative_strength": -31.076044, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.588129, "energy": 59.723435, "activity_lines": [ 0.4596, 0.467636, 0.491676, 0.522753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.47, "volume": 7788, "typical_volume": 68406.45, "trend": 0.558167, "fair_value": 2.106777, "relative_strength": -31.109545, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.950666, "energy": 46.443415, "activity_lines": [ 0.462867, 0.4654, 0.487995, 0.51672 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }