{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2d1c7c42-b5cb-4a8c-bb86-adb2a168ef16", "symbol": "VTWO", "name": "VANGUARD RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND ETF SHARES", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.141, "architecture_energy": 46.145, "architecture_maturity": 45.167, "architecture_confidence": 55.153, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.31, "rotation_up": 41.99, "upward_expansion": 71.01, "deceleration": 73.16, "rotation_down": 28.36, "downward_expansion": 11.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 119.380667, 119.269308, 117.278468, 114.237883 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 121.85, "trend_reference": 110.820548, "distance_from_trend": 0.099525, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 89.090944, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.367704, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.645235, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.143569, "excess_performance": -0.043885, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.099525, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061458, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.367704, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024828, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.016452, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033806, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.143569, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.301746, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4993992, "relative_activity": 0.44739, "balance": 1.301746, "dry_up": 0.720151, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033616, "annualized_volatility": 0.163504, "from_high_reference": -0.005144, "from_low_reference": 0.388268 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 110.820548, "fair_value_reference": 89.090944, "structural_low": 96.167165, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.052293, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.011111, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.033759, "worst_return": -0.112029, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.02611, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.00763, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.090884, "worst_return": -0.191388, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.079709, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.06242, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.174173, "worst_return": -0.207484, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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59.002463, "activity_lines": [ 119.572, 118.59896, 115.296322, 112.413105 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 117.71, "volume": 6694292, "typical_volume": 13705040.4, "trend": 109.656487, "fair_value": 88.513831, "relative_strength": 4.127124, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.209899, "energy": 47.977825, "activity_lines": [ 118.916, 118.657473, 115.907905, 112.968406 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 117.73, "volume": 8207401, "typical_volume": 12339450.3, "trend": 110.246623, "fair_value": 88.785242, "relative_strength": 3.388164, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.804576, "energy": 37.184869, "activity_lines": [ 118.376667, 118.614483, 116.441257, 113.489278 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 121.85, "volume": 4993992, "typical_volume": 11162512.4, "trend": 110.820548, "fair_value": 89.090944, "relative_strength": 1.645235, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.140735, "energy": 46.145144, "activity_lines": [ 119.380667, 119.269308, 117.278468, 114.237883 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }