{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2d21cc42-25cd-4e59-89ee-67fef9e1717d", "symbol": "PBB", "name": "Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 66.131, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -1.203, "architecture_energy": 6.772, "architecture_maturity": 20.815, "architecture_confidence": 66.923, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.49, "rotation_up": 24.21, "upward_expansion": 40.03, "deceleration": 39.21, "rotation_down": 29.79, "downward_expansion": 36.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.4624, 3.450618, 3.431933, 3.397398 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.462, "trend_reference": 3.465867, "distance_from_trend": -0.001116, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.902441, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.293821, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -30.84548, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.183105, "excess_performance": -0.357352, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001116, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072388, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.293821, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075808, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.308455, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083547, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.183105, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 38.261194, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1000, "relative_activity": 1.18631, "balance": 38.261194, "dry_up": 0.37606, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066969, "annualized_volatility": 0.482224, "from_high_reference": -0.391564, "from_low_reference": 0.271859 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.465867, "fair_value_reference": 4.902441, "structural_low": 2.722, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.005083, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.019242, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.147379, "worst_return": -0.104569, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.00273, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.053605, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.17482, "worst_return": -0.134901, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.057858, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.03075, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.284939, "worst_return": -0.286589, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"teal", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.109948, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057866, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073394, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024108, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026087, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014572, "active": false }, { 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"Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.955778, "energy": 15.207851, "activity_lines": [ 3.401867, 3.436655, 3.349505, 3.421032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.44, "volume": 412, "typical_volume": 1104.85, "trend": 3.566867, "fair_value": 4.997578, "relative_strength": -33.908971, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.482995, "energy": 14.805582, "activity_lines": [ 3.415467, 3.439091, 3.363257, 3.410817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.58, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1054.85, "trend": 3.5448, "fair_value": 4.976152, "relative_strength": -28.817308, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.041398, "energy": 3.788499, "activity_lines": [ 3.4664, 3.463382, 3.391562, 3.411665 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.502, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 974.55, "trend": 3.522867, "fair_value": 4.951356, "relative_strength": -30.234995, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.51949, "energy": 10.020882, "activity_lines": [ 3.484933, 3.467927, 3.412648, 3.408903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.38, "volume": 268, "typical_volume": 837.95, "trend": 3.497467, "fair_value": 4.925309, "relative_strength": -31.554006, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.069388, "energy": 8.058279, "activity_lines": [ 3.464267, 3.450691, 3.419771, 3.399686 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.462, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 842.95, "trend": 3.465867, "fair_value": 4.902441, "relative_strength": -30.84548, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.202883, "energy": 6.772003, "activity_lines": [ 3.4624, 3.450618, 3.431933, 3.397398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }