{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2d221f92-0185-449f-8991-4a07ad19e443", "symbol": "1309", "name": "Taita Chemical Company, Limited", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.578, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.754, "architecture_energy": 73.217, "architecture_maturity": 17.904, "architecture_confidence": 90.745, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.13, "rotation_up": 14.01, "upward_expansion": 17.28, "deceleration": 37.39, "rotation_down": 69.74, "downward_expansion": 92.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.153604, 13.799438, 14.890735, 15.64743 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 12.95, "trend_reference": 15.674285, "distance_from_trend": -0.173806, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.619348, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.114188, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.428419, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.108694, "excess_performance": -0.332678, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.173806, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07064, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.114188, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.149469, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.314284, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150854, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.108694, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.190296, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5964003, "relative_activity": 0.123662, "balance": 1.190296, "dry_up": 0.348472, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.130281, "annualized_volatility": 0.759067, "from_high_reference": -0.515459, "from_low_reference": 0.276351 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.674285, "fair_value_reference": 14.619348, "structural_low": 11.581419, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.086247, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.059437, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.035714, "worst_return": -0.105263, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.108922, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.158473, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.090909, "worst_return": -0.126935, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.239513, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.252775, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.172525, "worst_return": -0.306502, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082228, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069061, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.155093, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02994, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.108359, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Extended", 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"activity_lines": [ 14.778683, 14.993754, 16.386035, 16.228782 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.8, "volume": 34894356, "typical_volume": 61357978.8, "trend": 15.506284, "fair_value": 14.736313, "relative_strength": -19.869751, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.137326, "energy": 21.865859, "activity_lines": [ 14.77259, 14.924739, 16.149791, 16.191308 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.5, "volume": 18349074, "typical_volume": 57847173.85, "trend": 15.553401, "fair_value": 14.697374, "relative_strength": -30.889353, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.416604, "energy": 53.548048, "activity_lines": [ 13.986532, 14.450114, 15.689778, 15.997354 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.8, "volume": 8017433, "typical_volume": 53170986.7, "trend": 15.620417, "fair_value": 14.658801, "relative_strength": -30.387628, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.076694, "energy": 62.091371, "activity_lines": [ 13.420709, 14.086223, 15.270931, 15.819715 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 12.95, "volume": 5964003, "typical_volume": 48228246.8, "trend": 15.674285, "fair_value": 14.619348, "relative_strength": -31.428419, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.753633, "energy": 73.217463, "activity_lines": [ 13.153604, 13.799438, 14.890735, 15.64743 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }