{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2d26ff3c-84b7-4354-b323-0c59c415d23f", "symbol": "CTBI", "name": "Community Trust Bancorp Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.483, "architecture_energy": 84.097, "architecture_maturity": 48.408, "architecture_confidence": 85.858, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 80.47, "upward_expansion": 97.72, "deceleration": 40.55, "rotation_down": 11.46, "downward_expansion": 19.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 76.863333, 74.839556, 71.451484, 68.896316 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 77.76, "trend_reference": 65.892568, "distance_from_trend": 0.180103, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 49.406691, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.573876, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.877436, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.207319, "excess_performance": 0.019865, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.180103, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098149, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.573876, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.14929, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.118774, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.141311, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.207319, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.482062, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 492368, "relative_activity": 0.943282, "balance": 2.482062, "dry_up": 1.236137, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046764, "annualized_volatility": 0.208124, "from_high_reference": -0.027026, "from_low_reference": 0.587355 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 65.892568, "fair_value_reference": 49.406691, "structural_low": 55.910032, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.018807, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": 0.009683, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.164488, "worst_return": -0.088105, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.007458, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.023732, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.281224, "worst_return": -0.086187, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.11806, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.070642, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.340204, "worst_return": -0.101368, "sufficient": true }, { 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"modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.03655, "energy": 80.712704, "activity_lines": [ 72.942, 71.1395, 68.390439, 66.38287 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 76.15, "volume": 668381, "typical_volume": 521175.35, "trend": 64.426836, "fair_value": 48.850365, "relative_strength": 16.667627, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.645568, "energy": 81.259847, "activity_lines": [ 74.296667, 72.363145, 69.374141, 67.180784 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 78.45, "volume": 608699, "typical_volume": 527661.15, "trend": 65.192428, "fair_value": 49.129371, "relative_strength": 19.028731, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.729798, "energy": 85.60446, "activity_lines": [ 75.898, 73.77553, 70.493951, 68.085504 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 77.76, "volume": 492368, "typical_volume": 521973.25, "trend": 65.892568, "fair_value": 49.406691, "relative_strength": 11.877436, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.48256, "energy": 84.096713, "activity_lines": [ 76.863333, 74.839556, 71.451484, 68.896316 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }