{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2d27a823-aca2-4ff8-995d-3a6f78332504", "symbol": "REINA", "name": "Reinet Investments S.C.A.", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.438, "architecture_energy": 31.058, "architecture_maturity": 63.447, "architecture_confidence": 83.026, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.57, "rotation_up": 26.0, "upward_expansion": 15.27, "deceleration": 45.56, "rotation_down": 35.69, "downward_expansion": 62.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.585, 24.461727, 25.352, 26.178215 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 23.459999, "trend_reference": 27.2265, "distance_from_trend": -0.13834, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.340321, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.036167, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.044415, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.173944, "excess_performance": -0.260721, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.13834, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053584, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.036167, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.302327, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.230444, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.24369, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.173944, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.050221, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3369, "relative_activity": 0.7113, "balance": 1.050221, "dry_up": 1.763787, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083743, "annualized_volatility": 0.396548, "from_high_reference": -0.266875, "from_low_reference": 0.041741 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.2265, "fair_value_reference": 24.340321, "structural_low": 22.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.021998, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.032931, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.127388, "worst_return": -0.059579, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.034514, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.010327, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.152318, "worst_return": -0.053738, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.207982, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.191465, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.21192, "worst_return": 0.028038, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.297278, "energy": 54.348215, "activity_lines": [ 24.050667, 24.539, 26.167476, 26.941118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.25, "volume": 9371, "typical_volume": 4020.75, "trend": 27.7605, "fair_value": 24.242865, "relative_strength": -20.916013, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.999472, "energy": 48.420541, "activity_lines": [ 24.067, 24.338455, 25.900024, 26.703559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.120001, "volume": 9604, "typical_volume": 4299.9, "trend": 27.537833, "fair_value": 24.273743, "relative_strength": -18.663719, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.269479, "energy": 36.26409, "activity_lines": [ 24.423667, 24.405728, 25.732334, 26.533205 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 26.0, "volume": 11072, "typical_volume": 4608.85, "trend": 27.4245, "fair_value": 24.313945, "relative_strength": -16.031999, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.532932, "energy": 27.761914, "activity_lines": [ 25.021, 24.662818, 25.658357, 26.433989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 23.459999, "volume": 3369, "typical_volume": 4736.4, "trend": 27.2265, "fair_value": 24.340321, "relative_strength": -23.044415, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.437818, "energy": 31.058333, "activity_lines": [ 24.585, 24.461727, 25.352, 26.178215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }