{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2d2c99bc-5599-4f17-91fd-af8142a5d17a", "symbol": "DIG", "name": "ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.289, "architecture_energy": 37.292, "architecture_maturity": 19.298, "architecture_confidence": 62.383, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.88, "rotation_up": 65.93, "upward_expansion": 67.91, "deceleration": 62.48, "rotation_down": 9.01, "downward_expansion": 11.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 1026.14067, 988.323471, 987.112189, 993.759516 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 992.219971, "trend_reference": 974.897821, "distance_from_trend": 0.017768, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 757.657618, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.309589, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 16.584762, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.141365, "excess_performance": 0.196031, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017768, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118914, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.309589, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014822, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.165848, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028135, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.141365, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.294798, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41, "relative_activity": 0.470453, "balance": 1.294798, "dry_up": 1.250717, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073849, "annualized_volatility": 0.578131, "from_high_reference": -0.20832, "from_low_reference": 0.629839 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 974.897821, "fair_value_reference": 757.657618, "structural_low": 857.921753, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.058466, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.001178, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.200159, "worst_return": -0.06958, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.027571, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.043137, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.172117, "worst_return": -0.170403, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.149969, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.049668, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.150175, "worst_return": 0.149763, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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1038.390015, "volume": 131, "typical_volume": 89.35, "trend": 937.141394, "fair_value": 750.934199, "relative_strength": 25.038092, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.985138, "energy": 16.48967, "activity_lines": [ 948.655445, 951.658672, 979.882219, 977.15896 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1076.01001, "volume": 160, "typical_volume": 88.9, "trend": 952.089366, "fair_value": 753.651161, "relative_strength": 29.061318, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.63283, "energy": 29.500682, "activity_lines": [ 1000.528666, 971.157389, 986.226045, 986.118225 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1043.290039, "volume": 104, "typical_volume": 90.4, "trend": 964.98064, "fair_value": 755.909067, "relative_strength": 23.290093, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.079156, "energy": 34.444251, "activity_lines": [ 1026.956014, 984.281945, 989.076094, 992.00214 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 992.219971, "volume": 41, "typical_volume": 87.15, "trend": 974.897821, "fair_value": 757.657618, "relative_strength": 16.584762, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.288567, "energy": 37.292087, "activity_lines": [ 1026.14067, 988.323471, 987.112189, 993.759516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }