{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2d33e69a-00d0-45f6-90ac-a4f428abf98f", "symbol": "600675", "name": "China Enterprise Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.456, "architecture_energy": 43.169, "architecture_maturity": 96.86, "architecture_confidence": 62.856, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.43, "rotation_up": 26.66, "upward_expansion": 18.67, "deceleration": 66.98, "rotation_down": 43.0, "downward_expansion": 68.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.19031, 2.183417, 2.289688, 2.396346 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.21, "trend_reference": 2.539755, "distance_from_trend": -0.129837, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.902509, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.23859, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.874612, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.250847, "excess_performance": -0.207644, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.129837, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074546, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.23859, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123926, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.178746, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008241, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.250847, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.651623, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 148258601, "relative_activity": 1.326234, "balance": 0.651623, "dry_up": 1.400631, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064331, "annualized_volatility": 0.203883, "from_high_reference": -0.324159, "from_low_reference": 0.086084 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.539755, "fair_value_reference": 2.902509, "structural_low": 2.034834, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.007353, "positive_rate": 0.551724, "directional_follow_through": 0.448276, "median_excess_return": 0.026669, "regime_survival": 0.758621, "best_return": 0.213439, "worst_return": -0.131687, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.029412, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.030879, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.516206, "worst_return": -0.170733, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.062284, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.010299, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.277615, "worst_return": -0.186813, "sufficient": true }, { 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02974, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003676, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047794, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035587, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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153012194, "typical_volume": 115219281.85, "trend": 2.572946, "fair_value": 2.912239, "relative_strength": -19.978262, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.807353, "energy": 66.7634, "activity_lines": [ 2.128953, 2.187567, 2.32719, 2.439255 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.254277, "volume": 153324879, "typical_volume": 115577587.9, "trend": 2.556422, "fair_value": 2.908118, "relative_strength": -14.48424, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.051692, "energy": 56.378271, "activity_lines": [ 2.17182, 2.187828, 2.309272, 2.418696 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.21, "volume": 148258601, "typical_volume": 111789154.45, "trend": 2.539755, "fair_value": 2.902509, "relative_strength": -17.874612, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.456298, "energy": 43.169015, "activity_lines": [ 2.19031, 2.183417, 2.289688, 2.396346 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }