{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2d354e0e-8408-4364-831f-fcc754274380", "symbol": "FIAT", "name": "YIELDMAX SHORT COIN OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 86.323, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.391, "architecture_energy": 9.164, "architecture_maturity": 23.427, "architecture_confidence": 76.051, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.29, "rotation_up": 21.48, "upward_expansion": 28.36, "deceleration": 40.33, "rotation_down": 35.04, "downward_expansion": 46.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.455854, 20.401955, 20.25545, 20.469934 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 20.46, "trend_reference": 20.769389, "distance_from_trend": -0.014896, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.893271, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.143692, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.612908, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.144312, "excess_performance": -0.269937, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014896, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048704, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.143692, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096651, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.036129, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071515, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.144312, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.30176, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 220233, "relative_activity": 0.641674, "balance": 1.30176, "dry_up": 0.738455, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108914, "annualized_volatility": 0.488726, "from_high_reference": -0.255728, "from_low_reference": 0.552039 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.769389, "fair_value_reference": 23.893271, "structural_low": 16.921239, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.019522, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027221, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.098547, "worst_return": -0.137591, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 343216.25, "trend": 20.769389, "fair_value": 23.893271, "relative_strength": -3.612908, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.39132, "energy": 9.164033, "activity_lines": [ 20.455854, 20.401955, 20.25545, 20.469934 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }