{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2d359d61-3364-40fa-b5a9-a1e74bb08a0c", "symbol": "MOMON", "name": "Hello Group Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.517, "architecture_energy": 62.694, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.065, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.95, "rotation_up": 29.61, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 59.93, "rotation_down": 47.38, "downward_expansion": 80.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 97.629997, 97.77018, 99.707714, 101.67143 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 97.629997, "trend_reference": 104.492173, "distance_from_trend": -0.065672, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 178.026474, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.451598, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.951838, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.110081, "excess_performance": -0.055415, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.065672, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075842, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.451598, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024164, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.189518, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040981, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.110081, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.842553, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.842553, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015435, "annualized_volatility": 0.145593, "from_high_reference": -0.372493, "from_low_reference": 0.006495 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 104.492173, "fair_value_reference": 178.026474, "structural_low": 97.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.004865, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.385788, "worst_return": -0.068192, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.068965, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.039932, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.4068, "worst_return": -0.090301, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.172333, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.097463, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.24, "worst_return": -0.16611, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.470807, "energy": 96.169293, "activity_lines": [ 99.093335, 100.854547, 103.176382, 105.309062 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 97.040001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 75.8, "trend": 107.907868, "fair_value": 183.494144, "relative_strength": -24.556231, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.401974, "energy": 93.292513, "activity_lines": [ 98.144002, 99.861092, 102.405334, 104.537773 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 97.629997, "volume": 56, "typical_volume": 78.6, "trend": 107.172868, "fair_value": 182.40061, "relative_strength": -22.499053, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.643785, "energy": 87.43292, "activity_lines": [ 97.788667, 99.134183, 101.750794, 103.874685 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 97.629997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 78.6, "trend": 106.502694, "fair_value": 181.307076, "relative_strength": -21.668578, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.115254, "energy": 84.802335, "activity_lines": [ 97.577999, 98.555818, 101.153762, 103.259015 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 97.629997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 78.6, "trend": 105.832521, "fair_value": 180.213542, "relative_strength": -20.397494, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.297329, "energy": 66.276739, "activity_lines": [ 97.511998, 98.202363, 100.614238, 102.686583 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 97.629997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 78.6, "trend": 105.162347, "fair_value": 179.120008, "relative_strength": -19.993557, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.845225, "energy": 63.285098, "activity_lines": [ 97.590664, 97.964726, 100.132222, 102.157388 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 97.629997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 78.6, "trend": 104.492173, "fair_value": 178.026474, "relative_strength": -18.951838, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.51671, "energy": 62.694335, "activity_lines": [ 97.629997, 97.77018, 99.707714, 101.67143 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }