{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2d37cf9c-7284-4110-ac6f-628f948bb92e", "symbol": "IMMP", "name": "Immutep Ltd ADR", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.808, "architecture_energy": 78.562, "architecture_maturity": 81.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.883, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.68, "rotation_up": 30.0, "upward_expansion": 17.97, "deceleration": 40.49, "rotation_down": 52.62, "downward_expansion": 88.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.38994, 0.39364, 0.41238, 0.599272 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.3858, "trend_reference": 1.058253, "distance_from_trend": -0.635437, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.892517, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.796144, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -77.801641, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.852748, "excess_performance": -1.040202, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.635437, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.379567, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.796144, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015198, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.778016, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018188, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.852748, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.540745, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 806172, "relative_activity": 0.018869, "balance": 0.540745, "dry_up": 0.026313, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.149091, "annualized_volatility": 2.647542, "from_high_reference": -0.890705, "from_low_reference": 0.317623 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.058253, "fair_value_reference": 1.892517, "structural_low": 0.2928, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.021053, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.013077, "regime_survival": 0.740741, "best_return": 0.424465, "worst_return": -0.273038, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.033238, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.027859, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.63354, "worst_return": -0.223881, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.104002, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.142558, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.122807, "worst_return": -0.754845, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.192661, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.089888, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.12766, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.248447, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.10628, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"gate": "down", "direction": -60.727742, "energy": 67.402379, "activity_lines": [ 0.403467, 0.399951, 0.420004, 0.702836 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.382, "volume": 721011, "typical_volume": 43497893.75, "trend": 1.143727, "fair_value": 1.902928, "relative_strength": -77.37036, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.810947, "energy": 81.522222, "activity_lines": [ 0.395787, 0.395505, 0.415767, 0.64817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.3858, "volume": 806172, "typical_volume": 42724569.45, "trend": 1.058253, "fair_value": 1.892517, "relative_strength": -77.801641, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.808432, "energy": 78.562003, "activity_lines": [ 0.38994, 0.39364, 0.41238, 0.599272 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }