{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2d3a7125-db1d-4300-b00f-aa96283ddc48", "symbol": "ROAD", "name": "Roadside Real Estate plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.293, "architecture_energy": 55.328, "architecture_maturity": 35.005, "architecture_confidence": 90.258, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.76, "rotation_up": 19.28, "upward_expansion": 8.43, "deceleration": 54.57, "rotation_down": 64.51, "downward_expansion": 84.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.571833, 0.577091, 0.588821, 0.598871 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.5725, "trend_reference": 0.623167, "distance_from_trend": -0.081305, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.338388, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.691846, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.570899, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.223729, "excess_performance": -0.274964, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.081305, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043612, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.691846, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.4465, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.145709, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.160986, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.223729, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.059744, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 355862, "relative_activity": 0.413719, "balance": 0.059744, "dry_up": 0.993652, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030568, "annualized_volatility": 0.198765, "from_high_reference": -0.246711, "from_low_reference": 0.218085 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.623167, "fair_value_reference": 0.338388, "structural_low": 0.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.042163, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.045226, "regime_survival": 0.892857, "best_return": 1.87037, "worst_return": -0.276596, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.136364, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.149546, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 2.478261, "worst_return": -0.390164, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.315407, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.325855, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 5.144928, "worst_return": -0.544, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.534884, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.554888, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 6.403509, "worst_return": -0.715, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-11-03", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.104348, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.212598, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.266667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014493, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 2.658537, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.791401, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.707973, "energy": 74.671015, "activity_lines": [ 0.575333, 0.583091, 0.593667, 0.606645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.57, "volume": 2096759, "typical_volume": 853482.35, "trend": 0.62875, "fair_value": 0.33491, "relative_strength": -14.69248, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.490242, "energy": 70.225701, "activity_lines": [ 0.572333, 0.579455, 0.590976, 0.6025 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.5725, "volume": 355862, "typical_volume": 860154.9, "trend": 0.623167, "fair_value": 0.338388, "relative_strength": -14.570899, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.293476, "energy": 55.328363, "activity_lines": [ 0.571833, 0.577091, 0.588821, 0.598871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }