{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2d409e39-d833-4b65-aab6-beb12a12c412", "symbol": "900912", "name": "Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.724, "architecture_energy": 26.518, "architecture_maturity": 79.703, "architecture_confidence": 78.245, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.11, "rotation_up": 27.64, "upward_expansion": 17.1, "deceleration": 46.91, "rotation_down": 25.86, "downward_expansion": 62.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.633976, 0.627422, 0.639336, 0.650734 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.642, "trend_reference": 0.664448, "distance_from_trend": -0.033785, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.677749, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.052747, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.4816, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.065502, "excess_performance": -0.022298, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.033785, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032451, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.052747, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05595, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.064816, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064038, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.065502, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.878081, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 684482, "relative_activity": 0.905949, "balance": 0.878081, "dry_up": 1.313644, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03003, "annualized_volatility": 0.14943, "from_high_reference": -0.17268, "from_low_reference": 0.093883 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.664448, "fair_value_reference": 0.677749, "structural_low": 0.5869, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.000729, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002292, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.121353, "worst_return": -0.100712, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.00063, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.031469, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.196212, "worst_return": -0.112483, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.010251, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.026962, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.185566, "worst_return": -0.184682, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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0.617586, 0.628091, 0.649673, 0.660129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.623, "volume": 732468, "typical_volume": 743109.25, "trend": 0.668915, "fair_value": 0.67913, "relative_strength": -6.530796, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.826205, "energy": 58.896428, "activity_lines": [ 0.620623, 0.624828, 0.645781, 0.657033 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.621, "volume": 1056640, "typical_volume": 759091.35, "trend": 0.666981, "fair_value": 0.678651, "relative_strength": -7.54605, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.389604, "energy": 51.9712, "activity_lines": [ 0.621696, 0.622366, 0.642045, 0.653942 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.641, "volume": 1496461, "typical_volume": 796052.1, "trend": 0.665748, "fair_value": 0.678216, "relative_strength": -4.5545, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.18831, "energy": 35.537478, "activity_lines": [ 0.628702, 0.624612, 0.640529, 0.652266 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.642, "volume": 684482, "typical_volume": 755541.75, "trend": 0.664448, "fair_value": 0.677749, "relative_strength": -6.4816, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.723918, "energy": 26.51821, "activity_lines": [ 0.633976, 0.627422, 0.639336, 0.650734 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }