{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2d47c724-e4c5-4645-ba55-da1de07223c5", "symbol": "DRUG", "name": "Bright Minds Biosciences Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 86.282, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -15.58, "architecture_energy": 12.868, "architecture_maturity": 19.836, "architecture_confidence": 62.67, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.87, "rotation_up": 34.47, "upward_expansion": 21.18, "deceleration": 39.09, "rotation_down": 18.53, "downward_expansion": 50.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 75.584, 72.676364, 74.558524, 75.699355 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 79.33, "trend_reference": 77.465333, "distance_from_trend": 0.024071, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.953778, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.336412, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.790308, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.044228, "excess_performance": -0.143226, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024071, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018751, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.336412, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.704726, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.017903, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.226133, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.044228, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.791486, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 857825, "relative_activity": 0.667753, "balance": 0.791486, "dry_up": 0.865135, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.137798, "annualized_volatility": 0.608463, "from_high_reference": -0.358949, "from_low_reference": 1.11703 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 77.465333, "fair_value_reference": 33.953778, "structural_low": 56.47, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.016775, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.052294, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 40.534483, "worst_return": -0.345949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.302298, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.356112, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 40.811659, "worst_return": -0.421368, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.400703, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.532351, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 38.426009, "worst_return": -0.642195, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 1.012297, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.768297, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 18.00186, "worst_return": -0.739837, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03148, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.13154, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068823, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.758727, "energy": 37.303063, "activity_lines": [ 69.282667, 70.757455, 75.004048, 76.525978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 76.12, "volume": 1423541, "typical_volume": 1239982.45, "trend": 78.412333, "fair_value": 32.581278, "relative_strength": 0.212767, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.338579, "energy": 18.332615, "activity_lines": [ 72.466667, 71.208727, 74.95919, 76.36114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 71.33, "volume": 1114584, "typical_volume": 1271975.5, "trend": 78.052667, "fair_value": 33.013201, "relative_strength": -5.260663, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.913677, "energy": 17.952729, "activity_lines": [ 73.042667, 70.959636, 74.49481, 75.904215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 73.26, "volume": 1049609, "typical_volume": 1281834.8, "trend": 77.712667, "fair_value": 33.460444, "relative_strength": -3.993203, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.245767, "energy": 19.007871, "activity_lines": [ 73.550667, 71.173091, 74.240619, 75.595011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 79.33, "volume": 857825, "typical_volume": 1284643.55, "trend": 77.465333, "fair_value": 33.953778, "relative_strength": -1.790308, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.580341, "energy": 12.868455, "activity_lines": [ 75.584, 72.676364, 74.558524, 75.699355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }